119
FXUS63 KFGF 280945
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. WEST WINDS COULD GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 2, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A SHARPLY DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEARLY DIRECTLY LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. THIS WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A THERMAL
RIDGE BRINGS VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS (UP TO 7C) INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER,
SLIGHTLY WEAKER, THERMAL RIDGE WARMING THINGS BACK UP FOR THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND
SUBSEQUENT CHANCE FOR SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM HAS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY FOLLOWING
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..WIND ADVISORY TODAY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 850MB JET. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD
BE UPWARDS OF 60 MPH; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A STRONG INVERSION DUE
TO THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. THIS COULD LIMIT
BOTH THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS, AS WELL AS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
GUSTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO SUPPORT 40-45 MPH GUSTS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING, WHICH
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. DRIFTING SNOW COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCUR WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DRIFTING WILL BE WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
..POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND
THERE IS INCREASING ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS MUCH BETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS; HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH VARIATION IN
THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG STRONG SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 2+ INCHES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
STILL IN PLACE, THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
THE ENTIRE FA IS IN A LULL RIGHT NOW, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS
THE NIGHT UNFOLDS AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
CHANGE WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND LLWS. 55 TO 60 KNOTS OF
WIND WILL PUSH INTO THE FA AT 850MB BY AROUND OR AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING INITIALLY WILL BE PRETTY POOR, BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE
MOVING INTO MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING (AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON). STILL THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW GOOD
THE MIXING WILL BE, OR EXACTLY HOW STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BE.
HAVE PRETTY MUCH KEPT WITH CONTINUITY IN SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
WIND AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD TEMPERATURES, THE
AMOUNT OF BLOWABLE SNOW HAS REALLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT ANY MENTION OF BLSN OR DRSN OUT OF THE TAFS. HOWEVER IF
WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX BETTER, SOME OF THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
007-008-013-014.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...GODON
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