705
FXUS63 KFGF 281545
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. WEST WINDS COULD GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 2, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT THE WORST. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND NOON WITH UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE TO EXCEED THAT BUT IT IS APPEARS FAIRLY UNLIKELY (10%
CHANCE FOR HIGHER GUSTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY
APPROACHING THE LOWER 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A SHARPLY DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEARLY DIRECTLY LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. THIS WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A THERMAL
RIDGE BRINGS VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS (UP TO 7C) INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER,
SLIGHTLY WEAKER, THERMAL RIDGE WARMING THINGS BACK UP FOR THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND
SUBSEQUENT CHANCE FOR SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM HAS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY FOLLOWING
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..WIND ADVISORY TODAY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 850MB JET. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD
BE UPWARDS OF 60 MPH; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A STRONG INVERSION DUE
TO THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. THIS COULD LIMIT
BOTH THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS, AS WELL AS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
GUSTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO SUPPORT 40-45 MPH GUSTS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING, WHICH
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. DRIFTING SNOW COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCUR WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DRIFTING WILL BE WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
..POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND
THERE IS INCREASING ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS MUCH BETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS; HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH VARIATION IN
THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG STRONG SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 2+ INCHES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
STILL IN PLACE, THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WEST
WINDS THAT COULD RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KNOTS. LLWS REMAINS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG 850MB JET KEEPS
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO 60 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, MIXING
POTENTIAL KEEPS THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 50 KNOTS,
WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING HIGHER. BLOWING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, SOME DRIFTING SNOW IS INTERMITTENTLY
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL START
TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING, BUT WITH A GENERALLY LOW
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
007-008-013-014.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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