131
FXUS63 KFGF 290513
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1113 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA (10% CHANCE) THIS EVENING.
- ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
THE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. CAVALIER AND WALHALLA ARE
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT SO FAR HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY (10 MILES CURRENTLY). THERE WERE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO A MILE OR SO FURTHER NORTH AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. A
DECENT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE, WITH 12F AT FLAG ISLAND TO 32F AT WAHPETON. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE ALONG THE UPPER JET ALONG THIS THERMAL
GRADIENT. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN A THIN BAND FROM THE NORTHERN RRV
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE FOSSTON AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THIS EVENINGS STALLING
FRONT. WINDS MAY BE A HIGHER THREAT THAN SQUALLS WITH MAX
MOMENTUM TRANSFER UPWARDS OF 50KTS AS A WELL MIXED POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH A H850 WIND MAX OF 50-60KTS WELL WITHIN THE BL
CAPABLE OF BRING SEVERE WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN ANY SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS (SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS). WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY OF THE SEVERE WINDS AND DECIDE ON POTENTIAL HEADLINES IN
NEAR REAL TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH AN
ATTACHED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ATTACHED TO THIS LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS CONTINUING
TO FACILITATE OUR ONGOING WIND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
PRIMARILY ZONAL BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
BUT PRETTY MUCH EVERY ENSEMBLE FEATURES SOME DEGREE OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHAT IS VERY CONFIDENT IS
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
..WIND TODAY
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
FACILITATING ONGOING DOWNSLOPING AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS HAS
FACILITATED RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND SO LONG AS THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT LINGERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AFTER SUNSET AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL CEASE AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTH. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER.
..SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AS THIS COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN, SNOW SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG IT.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, MAINLY EAST OF
OUR CWA BUT COULD NUDGE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. COMBINING
THIS WITH SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE, IT WOULDN'T BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE THE DOWNSTREAM
SNOW SQUALL THREAT BRIEFLY ARISE IN OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
IS A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO (ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE)
BUT ONE THAT IS NONETHELESS A POTENTIAL EVENING IMPACT.
AS THE FRONT STALLS THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
IT MAY FORM FURTHER WEST, IMPACTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS, BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP MOST IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM.
IN ANY CASE, MAXIMUM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY PROGS BETWEEN
0.5 AND 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 2 INCHES IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TONIGHT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE FROM VISIBILITY RATHER THAN ACCUMULATING SNOW.
..SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK
THERE REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. EVERY ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FEATURES THIS SYSTEM TO
VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
FROM GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS TIMING. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE FEATURES
THE STRONGEST FORCING THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME MEMBERS DO
BRING PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THESE MEMBERS WEREN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO CROP UP IN THE BASE NBM, BUT ARE NONETHELESS
WORTH MENTIONING AS THE POTENTIAL EARLIEST POSSIBLE TIME FOR
IMPACTS.
UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACTS IS VERY HIGH AS THE ONGOING ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DESTROY ANY REMAINING
SNOWPACK WE HAVE, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH.
COUPLING THAT WITH EFI MOSTLY HIGHLIGHTING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THERE ISN'T MUCH WE CAN SAY ABOUT
IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IS VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
TO COME FROM NEW SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
PRETTY MUCH KEPT WITH THE IDEAS FROM THE 00Z SET OF TAFS. THE
MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE KGFK/KTVF AND
KBJI TAFS. KFAR AND KDVL MAY LIE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRINGE. AS
IT STANDS NOW, KTVF LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR GETTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW, BUT KGFK AND KBJI MAY
BE CLOSE. THE BAND SHOULD EXIT THE FA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/TT
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...GODON/TT
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