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FXUS63 KFGF 291618
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND NORTH OF I-94. CHANCES
FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE IS 50 PERCENT ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND
MUCH LESS FARTHER SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE. MAINLY HIGHER
ALTITUDE CIRRUS CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST ND WHERE
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HERE, INCREASED TEMPERATURES THAT COULD REACH INTO THE MID
40S HERE. IT IS POSSIBLE OTHER AREAS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 15 MPH TODAY WILL LIMIT CHANCE FOR BLOW ICE
POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE IN LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, MAINLY NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
MONITORING CLOUD COVERAGE FOR ANY UPDATES. OVERALL MOSTLY
CLOUDY, BUT THERE ARE SOME CLEARING AREAS. CLEARER AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN DVL-CANDO AND THEN ROSEAU TO NORTH OF
BEMIDJI. NORTH WIND HAS REACHED WAHPETON BUT WINDS UPSTREAM IN
NE ND HAVE GONE VARIABLE/CALM. WILL EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHWEST THRU THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE 500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES AND WILL DO SO INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES TO WHERE VARIOUS SFC TO 850 MB
FRONTS ARE LOCATED AND TRACK OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES. ALSO MODEL
ARE DAY TO DAY SEEING VARYING SOLUTIONS TO IF A SOUTHWEST US
TROUGH FORMS THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK OR IF 500 MB FLOW REMAINS
MORE ZONAL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER THIS WEEKEND. 00Z 1/29 MODEL
SUITE IS BACK TO A ZONAL FLOW CONSENSUS AMONG THE LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES AND THUS AFTER THIS WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES ARE RATHER
LOW. NOW AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO A VERY MILD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH WITH A WEST WIND
TURNING NORTH DOWN TO FARGO AT 09Z WITH A NORTH WIND. THE COLDER
AIRMASS LAGS THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND IS TIRED TO FAR NORTHERN
MN MAINLY ROSEAU TO BAUDETTE WHERE TEMPS AT 09Z WERE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. CONTRAST THAT TO NEAR 30 STILL IN SE ND.
THESE TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TOO. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT TODAY AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY
18Z WED. WARMING OCCURS 850/925 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A WEST WIND. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY THOUGH. BUT
925/850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR QUITE MILD TEMPS
WITH HIGHS MID 30S TO POTENTIAL MID 40S FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY WILL THAT COLDER AIR START TO OOZE BACK SOUTH AND THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND SET UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS MAY MAKE
FOR A LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPS FROM FAR NORTH TO FAR SOUTH. NBM
INDICATES A COLD AIR SURGE SOUTH AFTER THIS WEEKEND UNDERNEATH
A ZONAL 500 MB RIDGE. HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL AND THAT
SHOWS UP IN THE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AMONG THE
NBM MEMBERS MON-WED.
..WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
INITIAL 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ALONG THE BORDER AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SET UP NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DUE 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 850 MB WIND BRINGING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NORTHERN MN, WHILE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL EXIT IN THE COLDER AIRMASS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNDAY WILL SEE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ROUGHLY SASKATOON SK INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH HEAVIEST SNOW
NOW LIKELY CONFINED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE/SNOWFALL AMOUNT POTENTIAL. LATEST NBM INDICATES 2
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW 50 PCT AND HIGHER ALONG THE BORDER AND
NORTH, DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 PCT MID RRV AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
FARGO AREA. CHANCE OF 4 OR MORE INCHES IS 20 PCT FAR NORTH TO
NEAR 0 PCT SE ND. CHANCES FOR BOTH OF THESE AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST
SASKATOON TO WINNIPEG AND NORTH LOCATIONS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FROM
29/00Z SHOW SIMILAR IDEAS AND ARE EVEN LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN NBM
IS WITH PROBS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE 5 PCT OR LESS MOST ALL THE
AREA....WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z RUN AT 0 PCT.
SO WHAT THIS IS SAYING AT LEAST BASED ON 00Z RUNS FROM 1/29
IMPACTFUL SNOW CHANCE IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LEANING
TOWARD MINOR CATEGORY FOR AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUD BASES OVER THE AREA AT 12Z. TREND OF
TODAY IS TO LIKELY GET RID OF ANY MVFR CIGS AND WITH MORE OF A
MID CLOUD BASE THRU THE DAY AS AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 700 MB. WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS BY THIS AFTN ALL AREAS...THOUGH
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING NE ND/NW MN. CLEARING OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WIND 10-15 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON/RIDDLE
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