179
FXUS63 KFGF 300503
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1103 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW THIS WEEKEND MAY IMPACT THE
REGION. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER IMPACTS,
MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
HAVE SEEN A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RISING, NOT LOWERING.
THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ALSO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD,
BECOMING MORE PARTLY THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THEY DO SO. THE
THICKER CLOUDS IN THAT AREA HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHER THAN 8000
FEET, WITH NO LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING. FOR THOSE REASONS, WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION FOR LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE IT REMAINS VERY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF THE NIGHT IN LATE JANUARY, WITH WINDS ALSO STAYING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OVERNIGHT (NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2), BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS HOLDING, CONFIDENCE IN
THAT HAPPENING REMAINS PRETTY LOW (SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION BETWEEN 6:00PM-11:00PM. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO
0.2" OF SNOW. THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT LIES IN THE WEAK
FORCING PRESENT (WAA) AND HIGH CLOUD HEIGHTS (+8000FT).
CURRENTLY, CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
TRANSITION INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. AT DEVILS LAKE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO WEST AROUND 3:00AM. GRAND FORKS AND FARGO WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 7:00AM - 9:00AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
TODAY, SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER NORTH AMERICA IS COMPRISED OF UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
EXTENDING OUT OF HUDSON BAY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
REGIONS, AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS DEPICTED
BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WITHIN OUR AREA OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST
AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST, WITH MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGING, MAINLY BY WAY OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW (ALSO WITH THE HELP OF A DWINDLING SNOWPACK
EXPOSING DARK SOIL FARM FIELDS). LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TONIGHT,
WITH A DUSTING NOT TO EXCEED A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WARM AIR MASS ALOFT, UPPER RIDGING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND A
WESTERLY BREEZY THURSDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE; PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (MOST
ARE LOW 40S AT CLIMATE SITES), WITH A 10% CHANCE OF ACHIEVING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS UPPER RIDGING AXIS EASTWARD BY FRIDAY,
WITH A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MARGINALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES (BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST) AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK, BLOWING SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF DRIFTING IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
THE MAIN DRIVER OF POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS WITHIN THE FORECAST
COMES FROM THE PASSAGE OF A HYBRID SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
BEHIND THIS HYBRID SYSTEM IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO
AVERAGE AND/OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING AROUND MONDAY
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. DETAILS BEYOND THIS ARE UNCLEAR GIVEN
INCREASING SPREAD IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEYOND THIS WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM.
..POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
GETTING INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS ADVERTISED
BY MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PACIFIC
COASTLINE, WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER JET IN ITS BASE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS JET WILL HELP PROVIDE ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT MIGRATES
GENERALLY DUE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS A
SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF FORCING INTO OUR
AREA. STILL, A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WILL BRING FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTICS LIKE
INFLUENCE OF PROBABLE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE MID/UPPER
CIRCULATION, WIND/MIXING POTENTIAL, IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL
MESOSCALE FORCING UNCERTAINTIES.
AS OF NOW, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE INTERDECILE RANGE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION (AKA 80% CHANCE OF VALUES OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS RANGE) IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR, HIGHEST NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS
ALSO OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING LIQUID, WHICH BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ICING.
WITH THIS, P-WSSI NOTES UP TO A 30% CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS
(ANALOGOUS TO ADVISORY-TYPE IMPACTS) MAINLY NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS DUE TO ACCUMULATED SNOW, WITH LESS THAN 5% ON MODERATE
(ANALOGOUS TO WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS). IT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A 10%
CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WITHIN EASTERN ND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON NEW SNOW
AS CURRENT SNOWPACK IS NOT BLOWABLE. THUS TOTAL COMBINED CHANCE
FOR MINOR IMPACTS IS AROUND 20%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THIN,
WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS), AND NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT
A FEW MODELS SHOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT (AND SOME STRATUS). THESE MODELS DO KEEP THE
FOG/STRATUS JUST NORTH OF KDVL/KGFK/KTVF. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
ANY FOG/STRATUS IS QUITE LOW, SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY AT THIS
POINT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...GODON
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