300
FXUS63 KFGF 301841
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS BLOWING
SNOW POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER
IMPACTS, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SMALL AREA OF DENSE FOG STILL HANGS ON WITHIN THE MINNESOTA SIDE
OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTS
A CESSATION BY 20Z / 2PM AS DIURNAL HEATING WORKS AT THE
SURFACE INVERSION. RE-ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
MESSAGE THIS HAZARD LASTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPEAKING OF FOG, THERE ARE SIGNALS WITHIN GUIDANCE ON ADDITIONAL
FOG TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH OF THE SIGNAL
SUGGESTS A SCENARIO WHERE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SCRAPE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN EASTERN ND AND WEST- CENTRAL MN.
SOME OF THIS FOG WILL BE DENSE AT LEAST AT TIMES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE OR DURATION OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW IN SW KANSAS
WHICH IS MOVING NORTHEAST. A FAST WNW FLOW AT 500 MB FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS FAST WNW 500
MB FLOW THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SHORT WAVES OF LATE, WITH ONE
EXITING THE AREA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BUT MUCH HARDER TO IDENTIFY. BEHIND THIS
SECOND UPPER WAVE THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND NORTH
WINDS THAT WILL OOZE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTHERN ALBERTA. THIS HIGH IS QUICKLY
PUSHED OFF AND 500 MB PATTERN WILL GO TO A MORE ZONAL OR EVEN
WSW FLOW THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE MILD, BUT LACK OF SFC WIND MAY
PREVENT AS MUCH WARMING AS THERE COULD BE GIVEN 925 MB +2 TO +7C
TODAY, HIGHEST IN WEST CENTRAL MN. USING NBM 75 PERCENTILE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE ND AND MN GIVES HIGHS UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...VS COOLER IN DEVILS LAKE AREA WITH NEAR 30 AS COLDER AIR
STARTS TO OOZE IN THIS AFTN.
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN NE ND SO DID ADD THAT TO THE GRIDS
THRU MID MORNING. CAVALIER AREA TO RUGBY.
AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THERE IS A NORTH WIND 10-20 KTS,
SOME IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG FOR A TIME MORE
SO INTO CENTRAL ND LATER TONIGHT/FRI AM. DID BLEND WITH NWS
BISMARCK TO ADD PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT WESTERN FCST AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
OUTCOME OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DROPPING SOUTH.
..WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
MODELS HAVE ALL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REACHING NE ND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THIS IS TIED TO MORE OF AN 850 MB WARM ADVECTION ZONE
THAT DOES DEVELOP AND SATURDAY MAXIMIZES IN EASTERN
MN/WISCONSIN. SNOW AMOUNTS FCST IN THIS PATTERN HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS FOR SATURDAY TO 0.5 INCH
TO 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF E ND WITH 1-2 INCHES NW MN AND MAX
POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES AROUND BEMIDJI AND EASTWARD CLOSER TO MAX
850 MB WARM ADVECTION. ENSEMBLES AND NBM PROBS SNOW INDICATE 40
PCT CHC OF 2 INCHES OR MORE BEMIDJI AREA 12Z SAT-12Z SUN, WITH
PROBS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN THAT PERIOD DROPPING TO 5-15
PERCENT IN E ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MAIN 500 MB WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACK EAST THRU
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THEREFORE MOST OF
THE SNOW WITH THIS NORTH OF THE BORDER. GFS/NAM/GEM ALL HINT AT
A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING THRU SE ND INTO NORTHERN MN SUNDAY.
ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS. THIS PART IS MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH SFC
TEMPS IN THE 32-34 RANGE SUN MORNING IN SE ND INTO MN AND SNOW
RATIOS FORECAST TO BE 8:1 LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SHOWING LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
ALL IN ALL THE PROB WSSI FROM THE WPC INDICATE 20 PCT CHANCE FOR
MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW FAR NW MN AND POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW E
ND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOW
WIDESPREAD AND THICK IT GETS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, TAFS
SHOWS VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO COME
DOWN INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. HOW QUICKLY FOG DISSIPATES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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