410
FXUS63 KFGF 302206
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
406 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. AREAS
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENTLY, LARGELY CLEAR SKIES UNDER OBSERVED SUBSIDENCE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL ABOVE
FREEZING/AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN ACHIEVED PER THE PARK RAPIDS ASOS AT 45F
(PREVIOUS RECORD 44F IN 1992).
THERE SURPRISINGLY REMAINS A STUBBORN, SMALL AREA OF FOG WITHIN
EAST-CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THIS
BRINGS WITH IT A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND FOG. FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES TONIGHT, WITH EXPECTED DRIVER TO FOG BEING WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING VERY LOW STRATUS, OF WHICH
MAY SCRAPE THE GROUND AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS, RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES
FOR FOG EXIST ALONG THE EDGES OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL
AS OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN EASTERN ND AND WEST-
CENTRAL MN.
THE FRONT SLOWS/STALLS WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS
MAY CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR FOG/FLURRIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE IN AIR MASS SHIFTING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY THEREAFTER.
THERE IS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN OPEN UPPER WAVE/TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME, THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS REMAINS AT AROUND
10% DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
..LOCALLY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME AREAS
OF MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS VIA LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AS WELL
AS CHANCE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
GETTING INTO SATURDAY, A NOTEWORTHY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WITH
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE BROADER
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PACIFIC EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA.
WHILE THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WELL
DEEPENED AND STRONG, MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE WAVE AS
IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MORE OF A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED WAVE PATTERN,
WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH OF THE
BORDER BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID-LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO STAY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A LACK OF
MESOSCALE FORCING VIA FGEN IS ALSO BEING NOTED, WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
POSSIBLE WEAK INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO PRECIP ON SUNDAY).
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS RANGE IN THE 0.05 INCHES TO 0.30 INCHES,
BRINGING EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
BUT BASED ON CURRENT LACK OF SNOWPACK AND CRUST ON AVAILABLE
SNOWPACK, AS WELL AS LOW SNOW AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIAL
FOR NOTEWORTHY BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS IS RATHER LOW. DRIFTING WILL
LIKELY BE THE DRIVER OF TRAVEL IMPACTS RATHER THAN REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW.
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL LEAD TO
SOME DEGREE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL,
KEEPING IT IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOW
WIDESPREAD AND THICK IT GETS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, TAFS
SHOWS VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO COME
DOWN INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. HOW QUICKLY FOG DISSIPATES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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