158
FXUS63 KFGF 250521
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
58 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING. FOR THIS REASON,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR
SKIES PERSIST WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME ISOLATED FOG. THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY MINOR IMPACT SHOULD IT
ARISE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
OTHERS BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY TO BE
HEAVY TONIGHT BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LATER THIS WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH, WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE FIRST BEING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND
THE SECOND BEING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, PTYPES LOOK TO BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE FRIDAY
SYSTEM, STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE LIKELY FOLLOWING A MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE
AREA.
..CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG CLIPPER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO SHARP PRESSURE RISES ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
REGARDING CONFIDENCE, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS THAT COULD EXCEED 58 MPH (ROUGHLY 20
PERCENT CHANCE). CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT
SNOW, WHICH CURRENTLY FAVORS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND ADJACENT
REGIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER
LARGE IN DETERMINISTIC RUNS AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SOME BRING HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER INTO THE AREA, REACHING THE RED
RIVER VALLEY IN SOME CASES. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT BJI WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT TVF THIS EVENING. FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN PATCHES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
EXTENT SO IT IS NOT FEATURED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 12Z, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BJI.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG MVFR (OR POSSIBLY IFR) CEILINGS WILL LAST AT
BJI THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, SO IT COULD REASONABLY LINGER
TOWARDS 18Z. SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR THUNDER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
IMPACT FOR THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS MAY ALSO FALL TO
MVFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND FRONT AS WELL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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