346
FXUS63 KFGF 250855
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
255 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
KIND OF A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL ELEMENT IS A PATCH OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS TO
CROOKSTON. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN LOCALIZED SO FAR, IT IS REALLY
ONLY AFFECTING THE KTVF AIRPORT TAF. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR
LIKE IT HAS BEEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, OTHER MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A SOMEWHAT FLAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TRANSITIONING TO A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH A RIDGE LEANING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200), WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA), AND FRIDAY
(MOST OF THE FA).
..SNOW AND WIND FRIDAY
AT THIS POINT, THE WAVE FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE FA, IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE GOOD THING, AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT, IS THAT THESE DON'T OVERLAP. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHILE THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, SEEING SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE
STREAMERS COULD FORM ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LAST INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THESE COULD EXTEND WEST INTO THE AREAS WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS, AND RESULT IN PERIODIC LOW VISIBILITIES (LESS THAN 1/2
MILE) IF THEY DO FORM. BEING FROM 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT, DON'T WANT TO
NARROW THIS DOWN TOO MUCH, AS THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY
CHANGE. THE NBM HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA, AND
STILL ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH. FOR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS,
THERE IS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT BJI WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT TVF THIS EVENING. FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN PATCHES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
EXTENT SO IT IS NOT FEATURED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 12Z, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BJI.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG MVFR (OR POSSIBLY IFR) CEILINGS WILL LAST AT
BJI THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, SO IT COULD REASONABLY LINGER
TOWARDS 18Z. SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR THUNDER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
IMPACT FOR THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS MAY ALSO FALL TO
MVFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND FRONT AS WELL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...PERROUX
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