218
FXUS63 KFGF 251132
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
532 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE FA CONTINUES TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS MORE FINGERS OF CLOUDS
YET, NOT A THICK MASS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED FOG,
MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND LANGDON. THIS FOG
MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
KIND OF A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL ELEMENT IS A PATCH OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS TO
CROOKSTON. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN LOCALIZED SO FAR, IT IS REALLY
ONLY AFFECTING THE KTVF AIRPORT TAF. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR
LIKE IT HAS BEEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, OTHER MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A SOMEWHAT FLAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TRANSITIONING TO A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH A RIDGE LEANING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200), WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA), AND FRIDAY
(MOST OF THE FA).
..SNOW AND WIND FRIDAY
AT THIS POINT, THE WAVE FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE FA, IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE GOOD THING, AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT, IS THAT THESE DON'T OVERLAP. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHILE THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, SEEING SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE
STREAMERS COULD FORM ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LAST INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THESE COULD EXTEND WEST INTO THE AREAS WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS, AND RESULT IN PERIODIC LOW VISIBILITIES (LESS THAN 1/2
MILE) IF THEY DO FORM. BEING FROM 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT, DON'T WANT TO
NARROW THIS DOWN TOO MUCH, AS THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY
CHANGE. THE NBM HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA, AND
STILL ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH. FOR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS,
THERE IS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
TRICKY SET OF TAFS THIS MORNING, DUE TO ONGOING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS AROUND KTVF AND KBJI (EVEN KFAR). WHERE THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE, THEY MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AFTER THE SHOWERS PASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT, SO LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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