592
FXUS63 KFGF 251730
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG HAS LIFTED IN MOST
AREAS WITH A FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1 MILE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE FA CONTINUES TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS MORE FINGERS OF CLOUDS
YET, NOT A THICK MASS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED FOG,
MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND LANGDON. THIS FOG
MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
KIND OF A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL ELEMENT IS A PATCH OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS TO
CROOKSTON. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN LOCALIZED SO FAR, IT IS REALLY
ONLY AFFECTING THE KTVF AIRPORT TAF. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR
LIKE IT HAS BEEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, OTHER MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A SOMEWHAT FLAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TRANSITIONING TO A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH A RIDGE LEANING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200), WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA), AND FRIDAY
(MOST OF THE FA).
..SNOW AND WIND FRIDAY
AT THIS POINT, THE WAVE FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE FA, IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE GOOD THING, AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT, IS THAT THESE DON'T OVERLAP. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHILE THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, SEEING SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE
STREAMERS COULD FORM ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LAST INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THESE COULD EXTEND WEST INTO THE AREAS WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS, AND RESULT IN PERIODIC LOW VISIBILITIES (LESS THAN 1/2
MILE) IF THEY DO FORM. BEING FROM 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT, DON'T WANT TO
NARROW THIS DOWN TOO MUCH, AS THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY
CHANGE. THE NBM HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA, AND
STILL ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH. FOR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS,
THERE IS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KTVF CONTINUES TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
TOWARD MVFR LEVELS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES, WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT KFAR. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 9 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH LOWER WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...LYNCH
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