164
FXUS63 KFGF 252115
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK H7
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND H5 RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. PTYPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN; HOWEVER, A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. FURTHER EAST, DEEP
TROUGHING REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY
REGION. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DIVIDE THESE FEATURES, WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING NEARLY SPLIT BETWEEN WARM AND COOL AIR
MASSES. SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM, TRAVERSING THE REGION
OVER THE PERIOD COVERING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPS RETURNING ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
..LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY
ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG CLIPPER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLOSES THE H7
SHORTWAVE INTO A LOW HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PRESSURE
RISES AND STRONG CAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY WILL SURROUND HOW EFFICIENT WE CAN
MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS. AS SUCH, ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET ACROSS MANY AREAS,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, ALBEIT ACROSS A MUCH SMALLER AREA, MAINLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST, A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KTVF CONTINUES TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
TOWARD MVFR LEVELS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES, WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT KFAR. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 9 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH LOWER WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
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