973
FXUS63 KFGF 260110
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94, WITH BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-94 TOWARDS THE SD/ND STATE LINE. DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH HAS LIMITED MOST MID LEVEL RETURNS TO VIRGA. WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURING AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH MOST VALUES
UNDER 0.1". THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW MODERATE POCKETS ABOVE
0.1" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE IN OUR FAR SOUTH (AS INDICATED BY
HREF PMM), BUT MOST SHOULD JUST SEE THESE LIGHTER AMOUNTS. I
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT TIMING/COVERAGE A LITTLE
BETTER THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OVER OUR REGION
LIGHTER WINDS DEVELOP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. DUE TO
SNOW MELT, THERE IS AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POOLING OF
MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP. GRADIENT INCREASES IN ND LATE TONIGHT,
SO THAT MAY HELP MIXING ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS REFLECTING FOG IN NW MN IN THE 08-16Z
PERIOD WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG, WITH A CONSENSUS FOR
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1-3SM RANGE. DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP,
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF 1/4SM IS GOING TO BE UNCERTAIN, AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN IN COVERAGE/IMPACTS DUE TO THE INCREASING NW BL FLOW
WEST TO EAST DURING THAT PERIOD (DENSE FOG MAY REMAIN LOCALIZED).
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED FOG MENTION FOR NOW AND WE'LL MONITOR
TRENDS BEFORE CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL MESSAGING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK H7
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND H5 RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. PTYPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN; HOWEVER, A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. FURTHER EAST, DEEP
TROUGHING REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY
REGION. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DIVIDE THESE FEATURES, WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING NEARLY SPLIT BETWEEN WARM AND COOL AIR
MASSES. SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM, TRAVERSING THE REGION
OVER THE PERIOD COVERING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPS RETURNING ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
..LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY
ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG CLIPPER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLOSES THE H7
SHORTWAVE INTO A LOW HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PRESSURE
RISES AND STRONG CAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY WILL SURROUND HOW EFFICIENT WE CAN
MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS. AS SUCH, ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET ACROSS MANY AREAS,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, ALBEIT ACROSS A MUCH SMALLER AREA, MAINLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST, A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
THERE WAS A SMALL POCKET OF MVFR THAT IMPACTED KGFK DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS HAS MOVED EAST AND VFR IS PREVAILING ACROSS
TAF SITES IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR VICINITY IMPACTS AT KFAR EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIST THE REGION LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EAST
AND LIGHTER WINDS DEVELOP IN MN RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING, WITH IFR MOST LIKELY IN NORTHWEST MN
BETWEEN 09-16Z. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP INTO EASTERN ND AS WELL,
THOUGH THE BEST SIGNAL IS TOWARDS NORTHEAST ND FOR A NARROWER
PERIOD (AND MVFR IS FAVORED OVER IFR). DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS (EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST) IN ND AFTER
10Z FOG IS NOT AS FAVORED (THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IF WINDS WERE TO REMAIN CALM).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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