662
FXUS63 KFGF 261155
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
555 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB RIDGE IS OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WITH AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND ACCOMPANIED
SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL CANADA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANY SNOW IMPACTS FROM THESE ARE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA IN ONTARIO AND EASTERN
MANITOBA WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SEEING WIND IMPACTS
THRU THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
..PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS MOVING EAST AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ROSEAU TO WAHPETON AT 08Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS ARE NORTHWEST 10
KTS AND ALONG IT NEAR CALM. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DECREASE
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM. BUT AREAS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY ARE PRONE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS. WINDS FARTHER WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT DO DROP OFF AS WELL IN NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO
MANITOBA AND PATCHY FOG MAY FORM THERE AS WELL INTO LANGDON
AREA.
OTHERWISE TODAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUD AND SUN. HREF INDICATES
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO EASTERN ND TODAY.
CONSENSUS FROM NBM AND OTHER MODELS ARE FOR A DRY FCST TODAY SO
KEPT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND TODAY NEAR 10 KTS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
FOR MILD TEMPERATURES, DESPITE A BIT OF COOLING IN THE 925-850
MB LAYER. ANY SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO THE
40S IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A BIT COOLER EAST AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
..TONIGHT
OUR FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TOWARD KENORA
ONTARIO AND INTL FALLS MN AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WAVE IS VERY LIGHT BUT WILL SKIRT FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AROUND BAUDETTE/ANGLE INLET WITH 30-40 POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. ACCUMS UNDER 0.5 INCH. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST AND COLD ADVECTION IS
MINIMAL.
..THURSDAY-FRIDAY
OUR NEXT STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
KENORA ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO FAR NORTHEAST MN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
OCCUR JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
AND EC/GEM ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A SOLUTION WHERE
THE MAIN SNOWS STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF BAUDETTE. 00Z GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A TAD SOUTHWEST WITH TRACK AND WOULD BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO BAUDETTE. WPC AND MODEL
BLENDS USED FOR THE FORECAST IS HEADGING TOWARD ECMWF IDEA OF
KEEPING HIGHER SNOW CHANCES IN ONTARIO. EVEN WITH THIS MORE EAST
TRACK THERE IS STILL A 40 PCT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN
BAUDETTE/ANGLE INLET. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA QUICKLY...BEING NEAR
THE INTL BORDER 09Z-12Z FRI THEN FAST MOVING SOUTH TOWARD SD
BORDER BY 18Z FRI.
ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG CLIPPER.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLOSES THE H7 SHORTWAVE INTO A LOW
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG CAA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY WILL SURROUND HOW EFFICIENT WE CAN MIX STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE SPEED AT WHICH
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH, ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET ACROSS MANY
AREAS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS MAY WELL CAUSE BLOWING DIRT AND REDUCED VSBYS FOR A
WHILE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT THRU THE RRV BUT LOOKS MINIMAL IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS. THE SURFACE COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWER IN MOVING IN THAN
THE COLDER AIR AT 925/850 MB. THUS MAIN FALLING TEMP PATTERN
WAITS TIL FRI AFTN/EVE. SHOT OF COLD AIR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 15-20 DEGEE RANGE IN NW MN TO 25-30 IN SE
ND.
..NEXT WEEK
NBM HAS A BROAD AREA OF POPS TUES-WED PERIOD NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE SPLIT FLOW AT 500 MB AND
KEEPING A MORE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WITH TRACK OF LOW AND PRECIP MORE
INTO THE NEBRASKA, IOWA, SOUTHERN MN AREA VS OUR AREA. AFTER A
VERY WARM MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY, UNCERTAINITY ON THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN NW MN. INCREASE IN 925/850 MB IS SHOWN IN
MOST AREAS THRU THE DAY. AREA OF IFR CEILINGS FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA AND NW ONTRAIO INTO NORTHWEST MN AT 12Z IS SPREADING
SOUTH. TO WHAT EXTENT THEY LINGER THRU THE DAY IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. NORTHWEST WIND TODAY 8 TO 15 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25
KTS TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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