475
FXUS63 KFGF 261812
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1212 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
CLOUD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING OVER FROM CANADA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IMPACTS STILL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL, WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO HALF AN INCH AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS, WAS STRATUS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ND AND
NORTHWESTERN MN. SOME LIGHT FOG UNDER THE STRATUS BUT NOTHING
LESS THAN A MILE AT THE CURRENT TIME SO IMPACTS LOW. TEMPS IN
THE 20S AND 30S SO FAR, WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE STRATUS DECK
EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ADJUST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
BIGGEST QUESTION THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD AREA (IFR) MOVING
SOUTH THRU NW MN. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES IT GO AND HOW LONG DOES IT
LAST. CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO NE ND AS WELL THIS
MORNING. THERE IS COOLER AIR AT 850/925 MB TODAY...AND WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD (ESPECIALLY ANY LOWER CLOUDS) TEMPS MAY NOT WARM AS
MUCH AS THOUGHT EARLIER. DID DO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF HIGHS TODAY
DOWN 1-2 DEG IN NW MN FOR THIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB RIDGE IS OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WITH AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND ACCOMPANIED
SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL CANADA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANY SNOW IMPACTS FROM THESE ARE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA IN ONTARIO AND EASTERN
MANITOBA WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SEEING WIND IMPACTS
THRU THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
..PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS MOVING EAST AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ROSEAU TO WAHPETON AT 08Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS ARE NORTHWEST 10
KTS AND ALONG IT NEAR CALM. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DECREASE
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM. BUT AREAS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY ARE PRONE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS. WINDS FARTHER WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT DO DROP OFF AS WELL IN NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO
MANITOBA AND PATCHY FOG MAY FORM THERE AS WELL INTO LANGDON
AREA.
OTHERWISE TODAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUD AND SUN. HREF INDICATES
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO EASTERN ND TODAY.
CONSENSUS FROM NBM AND OTHER MODELS ARE FOR A DRY FCST TODAY SO
KEPT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND TODAY NEAR 10 KTS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
FOR MILD TEMPERATURES, DESPITE A BIT OF COOLING IN THE 925-850
MB LAYER. ANY SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO THE
40S IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A BIT COOLER EAST AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
..TONIGHT
OUR FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TOWARD KENORA
ONTARIO AND INTL FALLS MN AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WAVE IS VERY LIGHT BUT WILL SKIRT FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AROUND BAUDETTE/ANGLE INLET WITH 30-40 POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. ACCUMS UNDER 0.5 INCH. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST AND COLD ADVECTION IS
MINIMAL.
..THURSDAY-FRIDAY
OUR NEXT STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
KENORA ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO FAR NORTHEAST MN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
OCCUR JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
AND EC/GEM ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A SOLUTION WHERE
THE MAIN SNOWS STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF BAUDETTE. 00Z GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A TAD SOUTHWEST WITH TRACK AND WOULD BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO BAUDETTE. WPC AND MODEL
BLENDS USED FOR THE FORECAST IS HEDGING TOWARD ECMWF IDEA OF
KEEPING HIGHER SNOW CHANCES IN ONTARIO. EVEN WITH THIS MORE EAST
TRACK THERE IS STILL A 40 PCT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN
BAUDETTE/ANGLE INLET. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA QUICKLY...BEING NEAR
THE INTL BORDER 09Z-12Z FRI THEN FAST MOVING SOUTH TOWARD SD
BORDER BY 18Z FRI.
ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG CLIPPER.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLOSES THE H7 SHORTWAVE INTO A LOW
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG CAA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY WILL SURROUND HOW EFFICIENT WE CAN MIX STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE SPEED AT WHICH
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH, ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET ACROSS MANY
AREAS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS MAY WELL CAUSE BLOWING DIRT AND REDUCED VSBYS FOR A
WHILE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT THRU THE RRV BUT LOOKS MINIMAL IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS. THE SURFACE COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWER IN MOVING IN THAN
THE COLDER AIR AT 925/850 MB. THUS MAIN FALLING TEMP PATTERN
WAITS TIL FRI AFTN/EVE. SHOT OF COLD AIR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE IN NW MN TO 25-30 IN
SE ND.
..NEXT WEEK
NBM HAS A BROAD AREA OF POPS TUES-WED PERIOD NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE SPLIT FLOW AT 500 MB AND
KEEPING A MORE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WITH TRACK OF LOW AND PRECIP MORE
INTO THE NEBRASKA, IOWA, SOUTHERN MN AREA VS OUR AREA. AFTER A
VERY WARM MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE MN AIRPORTS AND EVEN KGFK WITH STRATUS
AND EVEN A BIT OF BR LINGERING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN
THOSE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KDVL AND KFAR ARE
STILL VFR CURRENTLY, BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOR AT LEAST A TIME
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOR ALL AIRPORTS, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP LATER TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
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