758
FXUS63 KFGF 262326
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
526 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW
IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IS DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA,
AND WILL CONTINUE DOWN INTO WI TONIGHT. ANOTHER, STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOMORROW AND INTO
NORTHERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE END OF THE WEEK AND FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES. THAT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THE ENSEMBLES HANDLE THE MID-WEEK PERIOD,
WITH THE 12Z PHASING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH AND PULLING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THERE ISN'T TOO
MUCH OF A STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL ABOVE CLIMO.
..LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MN
WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY AND SOME WET ROADS SO FAR. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS/RED LAKES AREAS, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING OVER A
HALF AN INCH ARE LOW SO EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS AT MOST. THINK
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BETTER AT PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA, ALTHOUGH THE BEST QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE ABOVE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS. SOME
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY, BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT LOOK PRETTY LIGHT.
..WINDS FRIDAY MORNING
OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE GOOD MIXING FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY EVEN FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 58 MPH
POSSIBLE. PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MORE ARE OVER 70
PERCENT. AND EVEN OVER 60 MPH HAS A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE. WITH THAT, WILL PUT OUT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS IT WILL BE UNCERTAIN HOW
FAST WINDS TAPER OFF. NO SNOW TO BLOW AROUND AND DUST WILL BE
IMPACTED BY WHAT SNOW HAS MELTED, BUT WILL HAVE WATCH AND SEE IF
ANY SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY IS GOING ON THAT COULD
IMPACT VISIBILITY. FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH THE WATCH FOR THEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
POCKETS OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE BULLISH ON LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
ARISING.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND
45 KNOTS FROM A SIMILAR DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 09Z, BUT ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>003-029.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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