519
FXUS63 KFGF 271620
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR
MORE ACCUMULATION.
- COLD FRONT TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH FRIDAY GIVING FALLING
TEMPERATURES. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THRU EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 58 MPH
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE PESKY BUT OVERALL MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE FORECAST IF NOT LOWERING MAXT A DEGREE OR TWO. ALSO
WANTED TO ELABORATE ON THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH FROM 09Z TO 18Z. THE TOP OF
THE BL LOOKS TO COOL INTO THE DGZ WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850
CAA AND UNIFORM NW BL FLOW TO SUPPORT LINEAR SNOW BANDS
SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW OCCASIONALLY COINCIDING
WITH LL FGEN. THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHERE OR IF
SQUALLS MATERIALIZE BUT AT LEAST MOST OF THE NEEDED GRADIENTS
SEEM TO BE PRESENT ON A CONDITIONAL BASIS THAT THEY SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY ALIGN TO YIELD ANYTHING. MODELED BL PROFILES
PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 20-30 J/KG OF CAPE UNCONDITIONALLY SUPPORTING
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO BE
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
FORECAST GOING ALONG AS ANTICIPATED. SKY COVER REMAINS A WORK IN
PROGRESS BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN
ND AND WESTERN MN. NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TWEEKS FOR
CURRENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
ONE 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA EAST THRU THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM COASTAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA AND THEN TO NEAR LAKE OF
THE WOODS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS TRACKS FROM
NORTHERN ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA AND THEN IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF NW ONTARIO NEAR KENORA FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
THRU FAR NORTHEAST MN ARROWHEAD REGION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAIN SNOWS JUST EAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION IN BAUDETTE
IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT VIA NBM GUIDANCE. FORECAST SNOWFALL IS
JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW REGION SNOWFALL WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT AND A DUSTING MAINLY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN TURN SHARPLY MORE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTH.
QUICK COLD SHOT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN MN. WARMER AIR STARTS TO RETURN EASTWARD SUNDAY AND
MILD DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS LOW 40S MANITOBA BORDER TO MID 50S
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
TUES-WED WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. 00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO SE ND/WC MN AS LOW TRACKS THRU KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI TOWARD CHICAGO. GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN A BIT WETTER, BUT
EVEN EC AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT
PRECIP IN SE ND/WC MN. TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN
THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE.
..HIGH WIND POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA
BORDER FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTH. NAM
AND MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT LOCATION WELL WITH
AN ISOBAR KINK IN THE FIELD AND A SHARP FALL IN 925 MB TEMPS.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE FROM SOUTH OF ROSEAU TO CAVALIER TO
LANGDON NEAR 12Z THEN TO NEAR A MAHNOMEN TO HILLSBORO TO NEW
ROCKFORD LINE AROUND 15Z THEN TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA TO WAHPETON TO
LISBON AROUND 18Z. MODELS DO INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIGHT WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
FALL FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT SO WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VIA NAM
MODEL AS SHOWN ON THE CIPS MODEL GUIDANCE PAGE INDICATES
POTENTIAL SQUALL NEAR 12Z ALONG ND/MB BORDER SHIFT QUICKLY SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY BETWEEN 15-18Z.
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS IN THE 2.5 TO 3.0.
FOR WINDS, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 45 KTS EASILY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MIXING TO 890 MB. NAM 850 MB WINDS FORECAST SHOW A
NARROW 60 KT ZONE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THAT HIGHER WIND TO MIX
DOWN. SO DO AGREE WITH KEEPING HIGH WIND WATCH. USING ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS
58 MPH OR HIGHER, FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY.
BUFKIT SHOWS GOOD MIXING WELL EAST INTO THE MN TREES AS WELL, SO
SOMETHING TO LOOK AT. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENCE WAS THERE TO
EXPAND WATCH EAST AT THIS TIME OR NORTH TO THE BORDER.
DID MODIFY POPS FROM GUIDANCE TO INDICATE A MORE GENERAL AREA OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT INSTEAD OF THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL STREAKS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
SKY COVER IS STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AS A
BAND OF CLOUDS (MVFR) HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST ND AND NOW SAGGING SOUTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREA OF SOLID MVFR CLOUDS LAKE OF THE WOODS
AREA. NOT TO BE OUTDONE A NARROW BAND OF VFR CLOUDS ROLLA TO
NEAR JAMESTOWN. ALL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST. 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY, ALL BUT PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. BUT HOW
CLEARING WILL PROGRESS INTO GFK AND TVF TODAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT
DO THINK AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT IN GFK.
DVL AREA IS ON THE EDGE TOO AND SO FAR STAYING IN THE CLEAR AS
IS FARGO. BUT WATCHING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH MOVE SOUTH AND
LIKELY INTO FARGO BY 15Z THEN SCATTER OUT. WEST WIND 8-15 KTS
TODAY THEN INCREASING WNW WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS INCREASE QUITE QUICKLY INTO THE 40+ KT RANGE OVER
PARTS OF NE ND BEFORE 12Z FRI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-029.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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