545
FXUS63 KFGF 282034
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WELL PAST OUR FORECAST
AREA, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP
ABOVE 900MB. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER WINDS HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEAST, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MIXING TO CONTINUE TO GET GUSTS
UP INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO, AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE NO LONGER
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH SOME LIKE FARGO STILL ARE.
AT THIS POINT THE 5 PM EXPIRATION TIME SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST
OF THE WIND HEADLINES, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DECREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT, BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN
FOR A TIME.
FAIRLY QUIET THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
GIVES WAY TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS UNDER SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
THE SPLIT TROUGH WILL COME OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
VARIATION IN HOW EXACTLY THE WAVES ARE HANDLED. THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
TROUGH AND HAS MORE PRECIP FOR OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE EFI AND M CLIMATE PERCENTILES KEEPING THE
MORE WET SIGNAL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. NBM GIVES US 30ISH POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS
POINT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOMETIMES VFR CEILINGS AS CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS GO IN AND OUT OF THE AIRPORT AREAS. THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2SM AT TIMES, BUT MOSTLY 3-5SM OR UNRESTRICTED. WINDS THAT
ARE GUSTING ABOVE 35 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVENTUALLY SHOULD SEE
GUSTS GO DOWN TO LESS THAN 30 KTS AFTER 21Z AND CONDITIONS GO
TO VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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