480
FXUS63 KFGF 010339
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS HIGH AS THE 50S ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE, WITH A BREEZE REMAINING OUT
OF THE NORTH.
SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH ALTOSTRATUS
STILL LINGERING WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE
20S AND 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS EXPECTED. WITH WIND GUSTS
REMAINING UNDER 45 MPH, LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE.
BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WITH THE HELP OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTTING
PRECIPITATION WITH DRY AIR AND SHUNTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WELL PAST OUR FORECAST
AREA, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP
ABOVE 900MB. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER WINDS HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEAST, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MIXING TO CONTINUE TO GET GUSTS
UP INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO, AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE NO LONGER
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH SOME LIKE FARGO STILL ARE.
AT THIS POINT THE 5 PM EXPIRATION TIME SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST
OF THE WIND HEADLINES, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DECREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT, BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN
FOR A TIME.
FAIRLY QUIET THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
GIVES WAY TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS UNDER SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
THE SPLIT TROUGH WILL COME OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
VARIATION IN HOW EXACTLY THE WAVES ARE HANDLED. THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
TROUGH AND HAS MORE PRECIP FOR OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE EFI AND M CLIMATE PERCENTILES KEEPING THE
MORE WET SIGNAL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. NBM GIVES US 30ISH POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS
POINT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND KBJI WILL LINGER THROUGH 02Z
BEFORE CEILING SCATTERED AND DIMINISHES BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN 20-30KT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH 03Z, GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 15KT BETWEEN
03-06Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 5-10KT BY
LATE MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ
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