129
FXUS63 KFGF 010934
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
TRANSITIONS INTO SPLIT FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. MAIN CLOUD
DECK IS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE COOL,
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE SINGE DIGITS NEAR THE SD BORDER AND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHERE
SNOWPACK IS HIGHER (NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER).
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY,
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE 925MB TO 850MB LEVEL. BL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. MAIN
FORCING IS SYNOPTIC OVER NORTHEASTERN ND AND INTO NORTHERN MN. THERE
EXISTS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SUNDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A
TREND UPWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
AS WE TRANSITION OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SPLIT FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A LARGE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL US. THIS EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL DATA ABOUT
HOW FAR NORTH THE SOUTHERN, MORE POTENT TROUGH REACHES. A FURTHER
NORTH TRACK WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA,
WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING LESS PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE, A MAJORITY KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. THIS IS REFLECTED
WELL IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, WITH THE CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF RANGING FROM ZERO NEAR LANGDON TO 40 PERCENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW,
TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP. BEYOND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW RETAKES CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCLUDING KDVL WHERE THERE IS A 60% CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AFTER 23Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10KT THROUGH
10Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 5-10KT BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY/SPENDER
AVIATION...CJ
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