087
FXUS63 KFGF 011533
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW JUST HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK
HAS ERODED WITH ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 SHOWING ANYTHING
INDICATIVE OF CONSISTENT SNOW COVER. CAN ALSO SEE A CLEAR
FEATURE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY DISTINCT AND DIFFERENT FROM
OTHER AREAS IN THE BLOWING SNOW RGB BUT NOT SURE WHAT THIS
ACTUALLY IS, POSSIBLY SOME TYPE OF WIND BLOWN SIGNATURE IN
FIELDS FROM YESTERDAYS STRONG WINDS. ANYWAYS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
THIS MORNING TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SINGLE DIGITS AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE SD BORDER. EXPECTING A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S FOR TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
TRANSITIONS INTO SPLIT FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. MAIN CLOUD
DECK IS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE COOL,
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE SINGE DIGITS NEAR THE SD BORDER AND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHERE
SNOWPACK IS HIGHER (NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER).
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY,
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE 925MB TO 850MB LEVEL. BL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. MAIN
FORCING IS SYNOPTIC OVER NORTHEASTERN ND AND INTO NORTHERN MN. THERE
EXISTS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SUNDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A
TREND UPWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
AS WE TRANSITION OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SPLIT FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A LARGE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL US. THIS EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL DATA ABOUT
HOW FAR NORTH THE SOUTHERN, MORE POTENT TROUGH REACHES. A FURTHER
NORTH TRACK WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA,
WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING LESS PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE, A MAJORITY KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. THIS IS REFLECTED
WELL IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, WITH THE CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF RANGING FROM ZERO NEAR LANGDON TO 40 PERCENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW,
TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP. BEYOND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW RETAKES CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 15Z. SKIES
ARE SKC THIS MORNING, AND TURN SCT AROUND 06Z AS A CLOUD DECK
SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 5-10KT AT 03-06Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY/SPENDER
AVIATION...SPENDER
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