169
FXUS63 KFGF 020400
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY WEEK WITH A
RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUR REGION.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
THE AREA OF STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER AND IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD OVER EASTERN ND AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS AND SURFACE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED
BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
FINALLY MATCH UP A BIT BETTER AND REFLECT THIS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING TO
THE EAST HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST REFLECTED WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST HAVE
LEVELED OFF DUE TO INSULATION FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH HIGHER
CLOUDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING TRENDS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SNOW TO DROP IN OUR WEST AND WOULD BE EXPECTED WHERE
LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING, BUT SO FAR TRENDS ARE REFLECTED.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT SKY TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MERIDIONAL
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET AND DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IN THE WEST
BECOMING THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN STREAM EXIT REGION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS WITH A COLORADO LOW TYPE TRACK INTO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BROAD DEFORMATION IN
THE MID LEVELS (850-500MB) COMBINED WITH STRONG WAA PROVIDED BY THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING LOW TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO BROAD PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. EFI PAINTS THE SIGNAL
FOR INCREASED WINDS FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING A 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER
30KTS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NBM QMD ALSO AGREES WELL WITH THE PROSPECT
OF INCREASED WINDS.
CIPS ANALOGS IS TOOL THAT GENERALLY SHOWS THE MOST FORECAST SKILL IN
LARGE SYNOPTIC EVENTS. WHAT ITS SHOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SHOWS VARYING HISTORICAL ANALOGS OF BLIZZARDS AND LATE SPRING
WIND EVENTS TO A GENERAL SWATH OF 3-8" OF SNOW. WITH THAT SAID THERE
IS CLEARLY A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH THE
MAIN STICKING POINTS SO FAR BEING PRECIP (COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW)
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH IS MOST PROBABLE IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST. NEXT THERE IS THE HIGH CERTAINTY IN WIND BEING A
FACTOR BUT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH LIKLEY NOT
BEING QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
COULD BE A NON FACTOR IN POTENTIAL TO COMBINE WITH SNOW.
- SCENARIO 1
OVERALL A MORE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH AND THE PIPELINE
OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT FOR
THE AREA. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR > 0.25" OF QPF
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY TO BEMIDJI (VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN
LOCATION STILL) WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE FOR 2" OR MORE OF SNOW. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW IN MN/IA/WI WHERE
COLD AIR AND QPF OVERLAP FOR A LONGER DURATION ON WEDNESDAY.
- SCENARIO 2
IN A DIFFERENT OUTCOME SAY COLD AIR ARRIVES SOONER AND QPF REACHES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN CONJUNCTION. IN THIS CASE MORE ROBUST
DYNAMICS WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW FOR THE AREA THOUGH STILL FAVORING
THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE OVERLAP OF FALLING SNOW, STRONG WINDS,
AND ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THIS WOULD HOLD A MUCH HIGHER IMPACT
CEILING FOR THE REGION THOUGH ONLY A FEW INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS AND THUS IT APPEARS TO BE A LOW CHANCE OUTCOME AT THIS
TIME.
- EXTENDED FORECAST
BEYOND THE POTENTIALLY MESSY SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK HIGHS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AVERAGES TO BEGIN MARCH FOR
THE REGION ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 10 BY
THE NEXT OF THIS WEEK FOR LOWS. HIGHS AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES PAST
MID WEEK CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND EVEN 40S BY NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S WONT PUT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DENT INTO THE
REMAINING SNOW AS THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT ARE A FAR CRY FROM THE LOWS
OF MID FEBRUARY SO NO COMPLAINING HERE. OVERALL LOOKING A A DRIER
TREND PAST THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LINGERING AT KDVL ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOWN LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
BY GUIDANCE AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD LINGER
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, BUT EVENTUALLY VFR SHOULD RETURN AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT OTHER TAF SITES IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THOUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE AT ALL SITES
FROM THE SOUTH AS GRADIENT INCREASES, WITH WINDS 12-15KT
(OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT) SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR
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