362
FXUS63 KFGF 020917
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, THIS TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL JET SEPARATES, LEADING TO SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN US. THE SOUTHERN JET EXIT REGION WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY, FORMING A COLORADO
LOW THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE GULF WILL BLOSSOM INTO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AIDED BY
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS TUESDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NBM WIND GUST PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50% CHANCE OF VALUES
EXCEEDING 40 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE REGION. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, EVEN TAKING THE LOWER END
OF NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, VALUES ARE 15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH, WITH MEAN VALUES PUSHING 50 DEGREES AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
..MIDWEEK SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WIDE VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FA.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS MORE CLARITY IN THE TRACK, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. THE
NBM REFLECTS THIS WELL, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25" OF
PRECIPITATION OR MORE AT 50% FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH CHANCES FOR EVEN
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS UNDER 30%. ONE THING THAT COULD COMPLICATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IS THAT SEVERAL LONGER RANGE CAMS ARE
DEVELOPING A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TUESDAY TIED TO THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTING WARM FRONT. WITH FGEN IN PLACE AND THE SLOWING
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT, THIS COULD LOCALLY INCREASE QPF
TOTALS. THIS CAN BE INVESTIGATED BETTER LATER TODAY AS HREF AND
OTHER CAMS GET WITHIN RANGE.
AN ADDED LAYER OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, MOST AREAS BESIDES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD START AS RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
FALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ALOFT AIDS IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE COLUMN, SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THE CLEAR CUT AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW, A WARM NOSE ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED
QPF AND WARM TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OR MORE OF SNOW FROM THE NBM ARE 20%,
RUNNING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION IS THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
OR LEAVE, DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE AT. THE DECK WILL FIRST CLEAR
KDVL AROUND 9Z, PUSH THROUGH KFAR AND KGFK AROUND 11Z, AND
FINALLY CLEAR KBJI AT 16Z. AFTER THIS DECK CLEARS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 13 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY. WITHIN THE VALLEY,
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 19 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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