135
FXUS63 KFGF 021304
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MN AND
NORTHEASTERN ND THIS MORNING TOWARD THE EAST. AREAS UNDERNEATH
THE CLOUDS ARE IN THE 20S, WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD DECK TEMPS
ARE IN THE TEENS. EXPECTED PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, THIS TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL JET SEPARATES, LEADING TO SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN US. THE SOUTHERN JET EXIT REGION WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY, FORMING A COLORADO
LOW THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE GULF WILL BLOSSOM INTO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AIDED BY
DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS TUESDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NBM WIND GUST PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50% CHANCE OF VALUES
EXCEEDING 40 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE REGION. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, EVEN TAKING THE LOWER END
OF NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, VALUES ARE 15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH, WITH MEAN VALUES PUSHING 50 DEGREES AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
..MIDWEEK SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WIDE VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FA.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS MORE CLARITY IN THE TRACK, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. THE
NBM REFLECTS THIS WELL, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25" OF
PRECIPITATION OR MORE AT 50% FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH CHANCES FOR EVEN
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS UNDER 30%. ONE THING THAT COULD COMPLICATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IS THAT SEVERAL LONGER RANGE CAMS ARE
DEVELOPING A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TUESDAY TIED TO THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTING WARM FRONT. WITH FGEN IN PLACE AND THE SLOWING
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT, THIS COULD LOCALLY INCREASE QPF
TOTALS. THIS CAN BE INVESTIGATED BETTER LATER TODAY AS HREF AND
OTHER CAMS GET WITHIN RANGE.
AN ADDED LAYER OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, MOST AREAS BESIDES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD START AS RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
FALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ALOFT AIDS IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE COLUMN, SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THE CLEAR CUT AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW, A WARM NOSE ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED
QPF AND WARM TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OR MORE OF SNOW FROM THE NBM ARE 20%,
RUNNING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MN
AFFECTING TVF AND BJI THIS MORNING. UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS
CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AROUND
14-15Z FOR TVF. BJI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15KTS, BUT GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE POST 06Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT POST 16Z FOR ALL
SITES BUT BJI WHICH WILL SEE FEW TO SCT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SPENDER
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...SPENDER
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