496
FXUS63 KFGF 030317
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
917 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
MPH OR GREATER WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- WIND DRIVEN SNOW MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES (<1 MILE) AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AS SOME OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN TO SATURATION. THERE STILL
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG ARISING AS THERE IS A MEANINGFUL
PGF ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN IF WINDS ARE LIGHT. REGARDLESS,
IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ANTICIPATED. THERE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS STILL FAIRLY LOW
FOR MINOR IMPACTS (20% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL, NOT MUCH FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FA
UNTIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
MPH BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES, MODELS ARE
NOT HIGHLIGHTING ANY FOG, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
ANYWAY. MONDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE QUITE A BIT SUN, WITH WIND SPEEDS
EITHER LIGHT OR NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH (FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION). A STRONG COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM KANSAS
TO MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A WIDE SWATH OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH INTO THIS
FA, IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
OVERLAP WITH THE STRONG WIND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BEHIND THIS LOW, THE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION TURNS QUIET AGAIN WITH A BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE.
..GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE GUSTIEST PERIOD BEING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE ALMOST STRAIGHT FROM THE
NORTH, WHICH IS ALWAYS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR HIGHER WINDS. THE
IOWA STATE WIND METEOGRAMS SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NBM SEEMS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT, WITH ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE FOR SEEING
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER WITHIN THE VALLEY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SOME OFFICES WANTED TO GO EVEN HIGHER THAN THE NBM,
BUT WITH THE NBM BEING PRETTY HIGH ALREADY, JUST DID SOME MANUAL
BLENDING TO MATCH UP WITH THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THOSE TYPE OF VALUES POINT AT LEAST TOWARD A WIND ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WARNING.
..WIND DRIVEN SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
OVERALL, NOT SEEING TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES. THE NBM STILL SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.25
INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 INCH OR MORE ARE ABOUT 50%
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT DROP TO ABOUT 20% FOR AMOUNTS 2 INCHES OR
MORE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY. HOWEVER, THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE ANY FALLING
SNOW WIND DRIVEN, SO THERE COULD BE SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE WHERE THE WIND AND SNOW OVERLAP. AT THIS POINT, THAT SEEMS
BEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, POSSIBLY EVEN
FROM FERGUS FALLS TOWARD ELBOW LAKE TOO.
IT DID SEEM TODAY THAT MOST MODELS HAVE A MORE DEFINED (BUT
WEAKER) NORTHERLY WAVE THAT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY, THEN INTO THIS FA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS HAS BEEN TO SHRINK THE AREA WHERE THE SNOW FALLS,
RESTRICTING IT NOW TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FARGO TO
BEMIDJI, EVEN MORE SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAHPETON TO
PARK RAPIDS. ANY TIME THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES, IT THROWS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS AT TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. EVENTUALLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE EAST TO
10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF IMPACTS TO ANY TAF SITE IS VERY LOW. RIGHT NOW, THE TAF SITE
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS DVL WHERE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHTEST FOR THE LONGEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...PERROUX
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