061
FXUS63 KFGF 031006
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
406 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 80% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND WIND
GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
- MIXED RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT TURNING TO SNOW TUESDAY
FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO FARGO LINE. 20%
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 500 MB PATTERN THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE ONE AS A STRONG JET BRINGS WAVES OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS WEEK. A WEAKER
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING WEAK UPPER WAVES THRU CENTRAL
CANADA THIS WEEK AS WELL PUTTING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO JET STREAMS.
..TODAY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NEVADA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TODAY MEANING
LIGHTER WINDS THAN ON SUNDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WARM AS WELL INTO THE
+4 TO +7C RANGE AND PROVIDED THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO DENSE,
SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
..TONIGHT-TUESDAY
UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z TUE WITH SURFACE LOW ALSO IN WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARD DAVENPORT IOWA/MOLINE ILLINOIS AREA BY 12Z WED.
INITIAL BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR SE ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS BAND OF PRECIP LINGERS THRU TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE MAIN LOW AND HEAVIER DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THRU CENTRAL
IOWA IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WISCONSIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SE ND INTO MN.
MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT ON LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES BAND FROM PIERRE THRU
SISSESTON SD TO NEAR FERGUS FALLS/ALEXANDRIA TO BRAINERD. A FEW
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIT NORTH BUT IN GENERAL FAVOR THIS ZONE
AS THE AREA OF HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH AT THE SFC-850 MB LAYER TUES
LATE NIGHT TURNING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IN PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN (WADENA, ELBOW LAKE) IT MAY TAKE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW. RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IS LOW,
BUT NOT ZERO. SO DID INCLUDE A POTENTIAL MIX IN FAR SE ND AND MN
NEAR SD BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES WHEN
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OVERLAP BETWEEN WARMER TEMPS 850 MB AND
COLDER SFC TEMPS. SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA THOUGH SHOW THE COLUMN
SATURATING AND COOLING WELL BELOW 0C FARILY FAST SO ANY ICING IS
LIMITED. AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 1 INCH. RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.30 INCH FAR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA WADENA TO ELBOW
LAKE.
FARTHER NORTH, THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM A
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO NW ND TONIGHT AND IT WILL MOVE EAST
AND THEN DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD IN NE ND TUESDAY.
AS FOR WINDS, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AND
DEEPENDING LOW IN IOWA/ILLINOIS. WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH AND GREATER AND WIND
GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER.
..LATE IN THE WEEK
A QUIET PERIOD AFTER THIS STORM PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WITH HIGHS 30S WED-FRI THEN
WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN
THE 40S WITH SOME 50S AND EVEN WARMER MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TOMORROW FOR
ALL TAF SITES, BUT CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY
IMPACT THE DVL TAF SITE, BUT THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO FAR BEFORE 06Z. THERE IS
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR AFTER THE TAF PERIOD FOR BJI TO EXPERIENCE
BOTH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT BUT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER
18Z. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, YOU CAN EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO
EXCEED 11 KNOTS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AFTER 00Z, GUSTS
SHOULDN'T BE TOO FREQUENT, BUT YOU COULD REASONABLY SEE GUSTS ARISE
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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