447
FXUS63 KFGF 032104
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, UP TO 40 MPH.
- MIXED RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO ICING, UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW
ROTATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BRIEF UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE OUT INTO
NEB/KS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO MO BY TOMORROW, WHILE A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND STARTS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TOMORROW NIGHT. OUR
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN HEAVY SNOW SWATH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH PULLS OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES BY NEXT MONDAY.
..WINDS TUESDAY
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE NORTH, AND THERE WILL BE GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM AROUND 900 MB WHERE WIND SPEEDS AWARE 25 TO 30
KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE BIGGEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION, THERE IS NOT THE BIG PUSH WE HAD WITH LAST WEEK'S
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 80 PERCENT OR GREATER FOR
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, BUT LOOKING AT GUSTS OVER 47 MPH IT GOES
DOWN QUICKLY TO 40 PERCENT OR LOWER. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LOOK
FAIRLY CERTAIN AT LEAST IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LIKE THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT BORDERLINE AND STILL COULD
REFINE COUNTIES A BIT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
..WINTERY MIX OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH, THE CAMS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONSIDERING
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MN, THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL COME
ACROSS A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES, FROM THOSE
SHOWING STRAIGHT RAIN BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING A COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE AND WARM NOSE ALOFT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH FOR FREEZING RAIN, ONLY ABOUT
30 PERCENT, BUT ANY AMOUNT CAN CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND IT IS ENOUGH
TO START INCLUDING IN SOME MESSAGING. THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH
SOME INDICATION OF UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE SD BORDER.
WITH WINDS PICKING UP, ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING WILL BE BLOWING
AROUND. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WINTER IMPACTS TO GO WITH
AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, DO THINK AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT A
POSSIBLE MESSY TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN ORDER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
CURRENTLY ALL VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT, AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING.
SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW AIRPORTS SUCH
AS KDVL FOR A TIME TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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