573  
FXUS63 KFGF 281746  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1246 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF ICE  
AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES OF ICE IN THE AREAS NEAR  
THE CANADIAN BORDER.  
 
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR (ADVISORY) IMPACTS DUE  
TO SNOW WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
GETTING SOME SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM  
NEAR FARGO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BEMIDJI AREA. REMAINS TO BE  
SEEN IF THIS IS THE PRECIP BAND THAT MODELS ARE INDICATING OR IF  
SOMETHING ELSE GETS GOING. IF CURRENT TRENDS REMAIN THIS FAR  
SOUTH, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS BANDS  
SET UP AND IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS IN THE COLD SECTORS. FOR NOW  
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE  
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM GRAND FORKS TO BEMIDJI. WHILE SOME  
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL  
FRONTOGENESIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THINK AT THIS POINT THAT AT  
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT  
ADVISORY WILL BE ALL LIQUID RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, IT  
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FZRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TO  
CONTINUE, SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND EXTENDS FROM  
HALLOCK TO NEW ROCKFORD AT 12Z. THIS PRODUCED ABOUT 0.03 INCH AT  
LANGDON...TRACE IN DEVILS LAKE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE IN THE  
30-32 RANGE....SOME SOME ICING BUT OVERALL ROAD TEMPS IN THE  
IMPACTED AREAS 32-33 AS WELL. ROAD TEMPS FARTHER WEST CLYDE TO  
BOTTINEAU UPPER 20S. SO WHEN IT WENT THRU EARLIER LIKELY SOME  
ICING. PRECIP AREA IS MOVING VERY FAST SO IMPACTS FOR MOST ARE  
LIMITED. 32 TO 36 IN THE NORTH VALLEY AT 12Z WITH GFK AT 36 AND  
CKN AT 37 AND TVF AT 34. SO WOULD EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND LIMITED  
TO NO ISSUES WITH ICING. SNOW WARROAD AND ANGLE INLET. ON  
REGIONAL RADARS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY  
WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION OR NOTHING WEST OF DEVILS LAKE. THERE  
ARE SOME SHOWERS ALONG MT/SK BORDER AND MODELS DO MOVE THIS EAST  
AND AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL SOME LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTN IN PARTS OF NE ND ALONG THE BORDER.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
500 MB SHORT WAVE (NOT WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR) WILL MOVE  
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z SAT. SURFACE  
WITH THIS IS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN INTO  
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT 500 MB WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA INTO NEBRASKA WITH SFC LOW FORMING IN NORTHERN  
KANSAS. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW IN IOWA. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORT  
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY  
NIGHT-WED. SO AN ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 30S DURING PRECIPITATION, IT WILL MAKE PRECIPITATION TYPE  
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  
   
..ICE & SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY  
 
TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS THE REMAINS OF A STRONG 850  
MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 850 MB WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT  
ZONE THAT PRODUCED AND IS PRODUCING SNOW FROM SASKATOON TO  
WINNIPEG WITH THE SOUTH EDGE SKIRTING ANGLE INLET MN BUT NOT  
BAUDETTE AND ROSEAU. IN THIS AREA SPC MESO PAGE INDICATES MID  
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WINNIPEG AREA SOUTHERN PARTS OF NW  
ONTARIO AT 12Z BUT WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES. THUS ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF SNOW TO OVERALL WEAKEN  
IN TIME. BUT PAST SNOW AND FUTURE SNOWFALL FCSTS INDICATE A 24  
HOUR PERIOD SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES IS LIKELY LOCALLY  
HIGHER RIGHT AT ANGLE INLET. RISK OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW INTO  
WARROAD AND BAUDETTE IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. RISK OF AT LEAST  
AN INCH OF SNOW IS GENERALLY 35-50 PERCENT TODAY FROM LANGDON TO  
HALLOCK THEN HIGHEST AROUND BAUDETTE. OUTSIDE OF AREAS AROUND  
LAKE OF THE WOODS, SNOW IMPACTS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL.  
 
FOR ICING POTENTIAL. MAIN FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THIS  
500 MB WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE  
BORDER. AND THERE HAS BEEN FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT IN AREAS  
SOUTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA AND NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN NORTHWEST OF  
BISMARCK BUT THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WHERE TEMPS ARE  
ABOVE FREEZING. THOUGHTS ARE TODAY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN  
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG MANITOBA BORDER AND MAINLY THIS  
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT THE LONGER THE PRECIPITATION  
AND FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AND NOT SOUTH THE LESS  
ICE IMPACTS THERE WILL BE.  
 
TEMPERATURES AT 08Z AT ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST  
FCST AREA. NOT EXPECTING A FURTHER DROP THRU MORNING AND NEAR  
STEADY TEMPS OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY FAR NORTH WHERE ICING  
HAS HIGHER CHANCE. WITH AIR TEMPS AROUND 30-33 THOUGH IN FAVORED  
ICING AREA IMPACTS MAY BE MUTED AND LIMITED TO COLDER SURFACES  
AND OBJECTS VS HIGHWAYS. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MIDDAY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS DIFFER ON  
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. GFS REMAINS  
MORE BULLISH IN HAVING A SECOND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BAND  
FORM IN PART OF NORTHWEST MN BACK TOWARD GRAND FORKS. OTHER  
MODELS LESS AGGRESSIVE BUT THEY ALL HAVE AN INCREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL RRV INTO BEMIDJI AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THOUGH DO LOOK TO BE IN THE 34-37 RANGE  
IN THIS PRECIPITATION AREA, AT LEAST AS FORECAST, SO HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN IF ANY ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 2 ZONE FROM  
GRAND FORKS TO BEMIDJI. IF TEMPS WOULD COOL ENOUGH AND RAIN  
HEAVY ENOUGH THEN COULD SEE TEMPS FALL TO 31/32 THIS AFTN ALONG  
HWY 2 IN MN AND IF SO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY OCCUR.  
 
SO WITH ALL THIS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS TODAY.  
 
   
..SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCE WEST CENTRAL MN  
 
LONG RANGE MODELS FOR DAYS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES IN TRACKING  
THIS SYSTEM AND HOW NORTH OR SOUTH IT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION.  
WPC AND NBM PRECIP AND SNOW PROBS WOULD INDICATE CHANCE FOR MORE  
THAN 3 INCHES (ADVISORY RANGE) TO BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ELBOW  
LAKE AND WADENA. NOW ENSEMBLE MODEL PROBS FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES  
ARE HIGHER WITH GEFS SHOWING 30 PCT CHANCE OF THIS, GEPS 45  
PERCENT CHANCE, AND EUROPEAN MODEL 40 PERCENT. SO WILL NEED TO  
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MINOR (ADVISORY) IMPACTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
TO SEE IF BETTER AGREEMENT WILL OCCUR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS, AND GETTING SOME VCTS NEAR KFAR  
AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS STARTS TO DEVELOP. WILL  
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR MOST OF THE  
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP MENTION  
AS RAIN FOR NOW. SOME SITES WILL DROP TO IFR CEILINGS FOR A  
WHILE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD HAVE A RECOVERY  
BACK TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS  
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
MNZ004-005-007-008.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ006-  
009.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...JR  
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