895
FXUS63 KFGF 282002
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
PROBABILITY FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS 30 PERCENT.
- MORE WINTERY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE (WARNING
LEVEL) IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WHILE MOST ARE FAIRLY
WEAK, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SD/NEB TOMORROW AND
THEN OFF INTO MN WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK ON
MONDAY, AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER HIT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY, AND THEN SIGNALS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
..FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UPWARD MOTION IN SOME LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DISSIPATED,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME BR IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH 2 TO
6 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CALLS UP TO CAVALIER COUNTY INDICATED
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN FALLING, WHICH FITS WITH ROAD REPORTS
IN NORTHEASTERN ND. THE MAIN ROADS ARE WET AT THIS HOUR THANKS
TO THE LATE MARCH ISOLATION, BUT WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE HAD
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z, AND MAY NEED IT LONGER IF
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE STICKS AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
..SNOW IN SOUTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK TOMORROW MORNING, ANOTHER, STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
PUSHING EAST ON SUNDAY. TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH NEB/SD/SOUTHERN MN, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BANDING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. AT
THIS TIME, THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE NBM ARE FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR SOUTH, AND PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE
DOWN AROUND 30 PERCENT. THAT OF COURSE COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
WHERE BANDING DEVELOPS, BUT TOO SOON TO KNOW THOSE DETAILS YET.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, BUT
CHANCES FOR MINOR/ADVISORY IMPACTS ARE GETTING TO AROUND 50
PERCENT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
..MID-WEEK SYSTEM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLES HAVE
THIS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, AND THE ECMWF'S EFI
HAS A 70 PERCENT SIGNAL FOR WET/SNOWY FOR THE TIME PERIOD. THE
PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MODERATE/WARNING
LEVEL IMPACTS, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS TIME
GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS, AND GETTING SOME VCTS NEAR KFAR
AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS STARTS TO DEVELOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR MOST OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP MENTION
AS RAIN FOR NOW. SOME SITES WILL DROP TO IFR CEILINGS FOR A
WHILE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD HAVE A RECOVERY
BACK TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ004>009.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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