563
FXUS63 KFGF 290535
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
PROBABILITY FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS 30 PERCENT.
- MORE WINTERY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE (WARNING
LEVEL) IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA SEEING A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX. COVERAGE AND CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 4 OR 5 MILES.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT SURFACES WILL TEND TO FREEZE
QUICKLY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A LOT OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FA WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHRINKING IN COVERAGE.
REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH FOR IMPACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE FARGO
MOORHEAD AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING
THERE. FOR THE SNOW AREA, WHICH IS ABOUT DONE NOW IN DEVILS
LAKE, THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING TOO. HOWEVER THE RADAR IS
OVERSHOOTING A LOT OF THIS TOO. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE, SO THE
SNOW IS NOT THAT HEAVY. WEBCAMS SHOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
HOWEVER, THESE MINIMAL AMOUNTS ALWAYS RESULT IN SLIPPERY
SURFACES. ROADS WERE STILL SOMEWHAT WARM, SO A LITTLE MELTING
OCCURRED, OR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION FELL, AND WITH THE
FALLING TEMPERATURES, SURFACES BECOME SLIPPERY. FOR THE LATEST
ROAD CONDITIONS, PEOPLE SHOULD LOOK AT THE LATEST DOT UPDATES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY SEVERAL OFFICES TO
THE EAST OF HERE. THERE ARE HUGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OUT THERE,
AS IT IS STILL 82F AT SIOUX FALLS AND 83F AT LACROSSE. MEANWHILE,
OVER THIS FA IT RANGES FROM 25F AT CANDO TO 45F AT WAHPETON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL A LITTLE BREEZY, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DROPPING. THE BIGGEST STORY THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT LITTLE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY STILL BE
VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES TO DEAL WITH. THE NORTHERN HALF,
FROM HARVEY TO CANDO, WILL BE SNOW. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
UPSTREAM WEBCAMS, AND MINOT HAS PICKED UP AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM JAMESTOWN TO MOBRIDGE, IT HAS MAINLY
BEEN RAIN, POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. BOTH THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE TOO. SO A BRIEF WINTRY MIX, RAIN, OR SNOW
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS. DON'T THINK THE
WINTRY MIX WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH IMPACT, BUT AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION (MINOR IMPACTS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WHILE MOST ARE FAIRLY
WEAK, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SD/NEB TOMORROW AND
THEN OFF INTO MN WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK ON
MONDAY, AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER HIT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
ANOTHER BREAK ON THURSDAY, AND THEN SIGNALS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
..FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UPWARD MOTION IN SOME LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DISSIPATED,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME BR IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH 2 TO
6 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CALLS UP TO CAVALIER COUNTY INDICATED
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN FALLING, WHICH FITS WITH ROAD REPORTS
IN NORTHEASTERN ND. THE MAIN ROADS ARE WET AT THIS HOUR THANKS
TO THE LATE MARCH ISOLATION, BUT WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE HAD
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z, AND MAY NEED IT LONGER IF
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE STICKS AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
..SNOW IN SOUTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK TOMORROW MORNING, ANOTHER, STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
PUSHING EAST ON SUNDAY. TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH NEB/SD/SOUTHERN MN, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BANDING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. AT
THIS TIME, THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE NBM ARE FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR SOUTH, AND PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE
DOWN AROUND 30 PERCENT. THAT OF COURSE COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
WHERE BANDING DEVELOPS, BUT TOO SOON TO KNOW THOSE DETAILS YET.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, BUT
CHANCES FOR MINOR/ADVISORY IMPACTS ARE GETTING TO AROUND 50
PERCENT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
..MID-WEEK SYSTEM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLES HAVE
THIS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, AND THE ECMWF'S EFI
HAS A 70 PERCENT SIGNAL FOR WET/SNOWY FOR THE TIME PERIOD. THE
PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MODERATE/WARNING
LEVEL IMPACTS, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS TIME
GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW AREAS WITHIN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SEEING A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. CEILINGS REMAIN IFR ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WE WILL START TO
SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AROUND 17-19Z FOR ALL SITES, BUT ONLY TO
MVFR. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CEILINGS WILL START TO REACH
NEAR VFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT
15-17Z, WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS FOR ALL SITES BUT BJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/SPENDER
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...SPENDER
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