371
FXUS63 KFGF 291745
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW.
- CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARNING
LEVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IS
MOVING NORTHWARD. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS LOW TO EVENTUALLY
PIVOT EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHEN. RIGHT
NOW, THE FORECAST APPEARS FAIRLY CLOSE TO OBSERVATIONS THUS FAR
ALTHOUGH A FEW MILES SHIFTED NORTH WILL WARRANT AN ADVISORY. FOR
NOW, WE'RE STILL HOLDING TO SEE HOW PRECIPITATION EVOLVES OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE BEGINNINGS OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
NEBRASKA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW FALLING FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL MN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO
15 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PUSH FURTHER INTO CANADA WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TWO
SEPARATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
THE FIRST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM MIDWEEK. AHEAD
OF THE FIRST SYSTEM (TODAY) WE SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES UP THROUGH SD INTO ND
AND MN, PRECIP MODE WILL BE RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BY THE
EVENING A TRANSITION OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SNOW AFFECTS SE
ND AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS IS BRIEF BEFORE BL TEMPS COOL AND
PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW. SNOW EXITS SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS DRY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SYSTEM SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK, WITH A MORE ROBUST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, SIGNAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
..PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS ND AND MN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX, SNOW, AND
RAIN THAT SHIFTED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING AND YESTERDAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND SHIFTED INTO NORTHEASTERN MN. THE EARLY
PART OF TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15-20MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITHIN THE
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS LOWER 40S.
COOLEST AREAS WILL BE WHERE SNOWPACK IS HIGHER (NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER).
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE HAVE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVE THROUGH SD AND INTO MN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON THE TRACK AND A REGION OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENTIC FORCING
SHIFTING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. GOOD
AGREEMENT IS NOTED THAT A STRONG AREA OF 850/700MB FRONTOGENSIS
DEVELOPS WITHIN CENTRAL SD AND TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY.
UNDERNEATH THIS FRONTOGENESIS WE GET HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES.
PRECIP MODE WILL BE DRIVEN BY TEMPERATURES AND HOW FAST THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS. RIGHT NOW, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION MOVING UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 70 PERCENT CHANCE THE
HIGHEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE FORCING IS ABLE TO PUSH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED IN A FEW RUNS OF THE NAM/RAP/HRRR.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START OUT AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THE
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL WITHIN THE BL
LAYER.
SNOW OVERSPREADS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH AREAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
4 INCHES OR GREATER WITHIN SOUTHERN WILKIN, SOUTHERN OTTERTAIL,
HUBBARD, AND GRANT COUNTIES IS 30 PERCENT. THAT 30 PERCENT ARISES
FROM THE CHANCE THE HIGHEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING DEVIATES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH. THAT WOULD INCREASE THE SNOWFALL TO LOCALLY UP TO 6
INCHES. AS STATED EARLIER THE CHANCE OF SEEING THE BAND SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH IS 30 PERCENT. SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..MIDWEEK WINTRY IMPACT POTENTIAL
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, EVOLUTION, AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF. THIS
TREND FAVORS THE MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MODE AS RAIN TO START THE
EVENT, BUT HOW FAST WE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW WILL HELP DETERMINE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER ARE 50-70% FOR AREAS IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 4 INCHES OR
GREATER PROBABILITIES ARE 30-50% FOR THOSE SAME AREAS. ONCE AGAIN
THE LONGER IT TAKES TEMPERATURES TO FALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CUT
DOWN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ON TOP OF THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENTIC SET UP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT COULD PLAY
A ROLE ON ANY DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. NONE THE
LESS, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE IMPACTS (WARNING
IMPACTS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS
(ADVISORY IMPACTS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWESTERN MN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST TAF SITES,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY IMPACT THE SITE
AFTER 00Z. EVENTUALLY, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER 12Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX
DISCUSSION...SPENDER
AVIATION...PERROUX
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