884
FXUS63 KFGF 300411
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1111 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GENERAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN THERE
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR 4
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE FURTHEST NORTH BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP FROM
WAHPETON BRECKENRIDGE UP TOWARDS WADENA MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
ABOUT 0.15 INCHES. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN WET
SNOW, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN. ROAD
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THAT AREA RANGE FROM 33 TO 36F, AND BOTH
THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA ROAD CONDITION MAPS DON'T
INDICATE MUCH IMPACT. THIS BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FARGO
MOORHEAD AREA, AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS NO LONGER PUSHING
NORTHWARD, BUT IS RUNNING INTO THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT OF ACTIVITY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FA. DON'T SEE ANY OBSERVATIONS IN OUR SOUTHERN
FA REPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET, BUT A FEW WEBCAMS SHOW WET
GROUND CLOSER TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ACTIVITY TO WORK UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THAT AREA ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN,
BUT AS THESE TEMPERATURES FALL LATER TONIGHT, IT SHOULD SWITCH
TO SNOW FOR A WHILE. FOR THIS UPDATE, ONLY HAD TO SLOW THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THIS FA. AS IT LOOKS
NOW, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FARGO
MOORHEAD AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AND WORKWEEK.
A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF
SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA. STRONG AGREEMENTS ARISE FOR TIMING BUT VARIABLE
SOLUTIONS DEPICTING STRENGTH CAUSES UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPACTS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST
AFTER MIDWEEK AS THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN 500 HEIGHTS.
..SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN EARLIER
ABOUT DELAYED PROPAGATION EASTWARD THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO CROSS INTO OUR AREA. AS OF THE WRITING OF
THIS AFD, THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. SNOW IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO IMPACT WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AND LAST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW TOTALS ARE
LIKELY TO BE TIGHT, PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF
SNOWFALL. THIS MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE AS YOU PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
AT THIS POINT, THE 90TH PERCENTILE SITS AROUND 5-6 INCHES, BUT
THIS IS APPEARING MORE UNLIKELY FOR OUR AREA. GENERAL RANGES SIT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES, WITH THE BULK OF TOTALS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY) INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH GRANT COUNTY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT THE
MOST REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE 5-6 INCHES IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT THE MOST BEING WELL BELOW THIS THRESHOLD.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
..SYSTEM THIS WEEK
STRONG AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM INTO MIDWEEK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LEADING WAVE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS THAT
WILL BRING SOME SWATH OF SNOW MAINLY TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEFORE THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM DEEPENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THIS TIMING, BUT THE
MAIN HANGUP RIGHT NOW IS INTENSITY. FOR THIS REASON, THERE
EXISTS A VARIABLE RANGE OF SCENARIOS FROM ADVISORY TO WARNING
LEVEL IMPACTS. CLUSTERS INDICATE WIND SHOULD PRIMARILY COME FROM
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE, SO BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE HEAVILY
IMPACTED FROM SNOWFALL RATES AND IF IT COLOCATES WITH FALLING
SNOW IN THE FIRST PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WIND, ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM AS THIS ONE MAY BEAR WATCHING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW, CEILINGS THIS EVENING HAVE
IMPROVED MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS FASTER
IMPROVEMENT, IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...GODON
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