592
FXUS63 KFGF 300833
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT PARTS OF
THE AREA COULD SEE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LOW, BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. DEEP TROUGHING DIGS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES NOW
DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO OR SOUTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD, THE H5 LOW WILL START TO STALL AND OCCLUDE, WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG STRONG 850 MB FLOW. AS SUCH,
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX, THEN SNOW,
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
..MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AS DEEP H5
TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW VARIES ACROSS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; HOWEVER,
MOST ENSEMBLES REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS CLOSED LOW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME VARIABILITY,
BUT OVERALL, IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN IN BOTH THE
ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE (70 PERCENT OR GREATER) TO SEE 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL HINGE UPON A NUMBER OF FACTORS, HOWEVER,
INCLUDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE, WHICH COULD PROVE TO BE
CHALLENGING, WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY CUTTING INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS.
WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS, WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE AT THE
850 MB LAYER WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW PRECIP TO FORM,
BUT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. THIS, COMBINED
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, WILL BE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS. REGARDLESS OF THE ONSET
TIMING, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW. BANDED SNOW IS SUPPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL BANDS IS TYPICALLY
VERY LOW THIS FAR AWAY FROM THE EVENT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE, BUT ANY BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
BE LINKED TO FALLING SNOW. AT THIS TIME, HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW, CEILINGS THIS EVENING HAVE
IMPROVED MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS FASTER
IMPROVEMENT, IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...GODON
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