239
FXUS63 KFGF 301757
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT PARTS OF
THE AREA COULD SEE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAVE STARTED TO LIFT, BUT
CLOUDIER SKIES ARE STILL CONTINUING TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING IN
THOSE AREAS (AND HIGHS). ELSEWHERE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUTSIDE OF HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS (A FEW
SPOTS REPORTING LOWER 40S). TDS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AND RHS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 30% RANGE AT
TIMES IN NORTHWEST MN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER REFLECT
THOSE TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN TO ADJUST FOR SKY TRENDS WITH THE MAIN
PRECIP AREA TO THE SOUTH HAVING EXITED OUR CWA. IN THE STRATUS
TO THE NORTHWEST THERE HAD BEEN OCCASIONAL UPSTREAM REPORTS OF
FLURRIES, HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL IF THESE OCCUR. TEMPS
WILL VARY DUE TO THE CLOUDS COVER AND MAY NOT REACH FREEZING IN
OUR NORTHWEST UNDER THE LOWER STRATUS IF IT LINGERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW DEPARTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING, WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LOW, BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. DEEP TROUGHING DIGS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES NOW
DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO OR SOUTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD, THE H5 LOW WILL START TO STALL AND OCCLUDE, WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG STRONG 850 MB FLOW. AS SUCH,
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX, THEN SNOW,
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
..MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AS DEEP H5
TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW VARIES ACROSS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; HOWEVER,
MOST ENSEMBLES REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS CLOSED LOW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME VARIABILITY,
BUT OVERALL, IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN IN BOTH THE
ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE (70 PERCENT OR GREATER) TO SEE 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL HINGE UPON A NUMBER OF FACTORS, HOWEVER,
INCLUDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE, WHICH COULD PROVE TO BE
CHALLENGING, WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY CUTTING INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS.
WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS, WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE AT THE
850 MB LAYER WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW PRECIP TO FORM,
BUT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. THIS, COMBINED
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, WILL BE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS. REGARDLESS OF THE ONSET
TIMING, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW. BANDED SNOW IS SUPPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL BANDS IS TYPICALLY
VERY LOW THIS FAR AWAY FROM THE EVENT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE, BUT ANY BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
BE LINKED TO FALLING SNOW. AT THIS TIME, HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING
12-15KT, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z, BEFORE GRADUAL REDUCTIONS BELOW 12KT OCCUR WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page