548
FXUS63 KFGF 311437
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE (WARNING) IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WITH AT LEAST MINOR (ADVISORY)
IMPACTS FURTHER NORTH, TO INCLUDE THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR AS WELL
AS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOLID MIXING, SO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS MAY GET US TO MID 20S RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. FOR THIS
REASON, AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FROM A NON-FIRE POINT OF VIEW, IMPACTS
TODAY WILL NOT OCCUR AS THERE ISN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW SEEING CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO THE UPPER 20S NEAR
FERGUS FALLS. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES TODAY. FOR TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES, DEEPENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS, THEN
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM CLIMB TO NEARLY 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX BECOMING ALL
SNOW LATER DURING THE EVENING. WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
..STRONG WINTER STORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY, THEN
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FGEN POTENTIAL WILL FACILITATE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER BANDS. CAMS ARE STARTING TO REACH THE
SYSTEM TEMPORALLY, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES WITHIN THESE BANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN
ARE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW. FURTHER NORTH, BANDING POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS; HOWEVER, FEWER ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS UPWARDS OF 80 PERCENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. IT IS WORTH NOTING, LIKE ANY SYSTEM WITH
BANDING POTENTIAL, THAT ANY SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE THE LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED HIGHEST IMPACTS.
ALTERNATIVE, ALBEIT LOWER CHANCE, SCENARIOS SUPPORT THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ADDITIONALLY, WARM TEMPERATURES AND/OR DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE ON TUESDAY COULD INHIBIT SNOW FROM REACHING AND/OR
ACCUMULATING ON SURFACES. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER SNOWFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLOW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY,
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL START MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ002-003-009-015>017-022>024-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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