402
FXUS63 KFGF 311925
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
225 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM 1 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 1 AM
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW LEADING TO
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
-UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND TEMPERATURES LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, THERE IS A 60%
CHANCE TO GET WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS FROM 6 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW
ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 200 STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS
BEMIDJI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS INVERTED RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL GIVE QUIET WEATHER IN ADVANCE OF THE WINTER STORM THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR AREA.
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK, SPLIT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN. THERE LACKS ANY REAL
STRONG SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE/MAJOR IMPACTS AFTER THIS
SYSTEM, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SYSTEM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA BUT WITH MUCH LESS OF A MOISTURE FETCH.
..WINTER STORM
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, GETTING
UPPER FLOW REPLACED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW. THIS LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS OVER OUR AREA,
AIDED HEAVILY BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL TEMPER DOWN
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER. THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING, GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ASSUMING LIMITED COMPACTION.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OVERLAP WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION. WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL, ANY REMAINING RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL OVERRUN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
LOCATED ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT/TROWAL. WHERE THIS TROWAL
SETS UP WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOWFALL.
SADLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IFFY ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL
BEGIN TO OCCLUDE NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY, THE RAP/HRRR SOLUTION
PAINTS AN OUTLIER SCENARIO OF A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND
PUSH NORTHWARD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL, WHILE THE BULK OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE PAINTS A BIT LATER TIMING IN THE ONSET OF OCCLUSION.
THIS IS THE REASON WHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE THE HIGHEST WITH THE
LARGEST 25TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS, WHILE THE 25TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH ARE LOWER. STILL, IF THE MORE RAPID
OCCLUSION OCCURS, WARNING IMPACTS WOULD BE FELT FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS AN OCCLUSION THAT BRINGS
HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD IN OCCLUSION TIMING FROM
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ANYONE IN THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING. ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW, WE WILL BE ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY
UPGRADE.
AT THIS TIME, EXPECT AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA. WHERE THIS BAND
SETS UP, HOWEVER, EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOW, POTENTIALLY GETTING TO DOUBLE DIGITS IF HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE A DECENT RESIDENCE TIME IN SOME SPOTS. DESPITE THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES, BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW DUE TO
LIMITED WIND SPEEDS. GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO MAX OUT AROUND
25-35MPH, JUST PLACING IT UNDER BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS OF EVEN IF WE CROSS CRITERIA, THE GREATEST IMPACTS
WILL BE FROM THE ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW.
RECOVERY MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE HEAVY WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR
INDIVIDUALS WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR HEART ATTACKS DUE TO
SHOVELING. IF YOU DO SHOVEL HEAVY SNOW, MAKE SURE TO TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND DO NOT PUSH YOURSELF TOO HARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
GENERALLY VFR AND LOW AVIATION IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
06Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO FROM THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS BEGINNING TO FALL THEREAFTER.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, BRINGING CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SHOULD IT ARISE AT ANY TAF SITE, WILL
BE PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ002-003-009-015>017-022>024-
027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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