781
FXUS63 KFGF 010908
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST- CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
- WARNING IMPACTS LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION TODAY
WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE SNOW IN
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..WINTER STORM SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY ONSHORE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE OBS ARE GENERALLY IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL CONDITIONS ON MOST MODELS NOW, ALBEIT WITH A
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE BIAS IN ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THEN TREK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS SHOWING OCCLUSION POTENTIAL AND
SUBSEQUENT BRIEF INFLECTION TO THE NORTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS, WITH HRRR AND WRF3 ARW
FAVORING THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND
THE NAMNEST, NAM12, AND RDPS FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AREAS
WITHIN THIS BAND ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY
SNOW, WITH RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER HOUR. TIMING IS
CRUCIAL AS WELL, WITH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY
INITIALLY INHIBITING ACCUMULATION. THE AREA OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
AND THE DRY SLOT BEGINS TO FILL WITH PRECIPITATION AS OCCLUSION
TAKES PLACE. IN EITHER CASE, LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE
HIGHEST.
..WARNING IMPACTS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
TIMING: MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE TODAY FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THEN
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS: LOOKING AT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, 25TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS (75
PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED THIS AMOUNT) RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES,
WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE (25 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THIS
AMOUNT) RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER GIVEN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE STRONGER BANDS FORM, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, WE CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES (25TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, AMOUNTS
COULD BE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR TWO IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES NEAR ROSEAU.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:
1) THE LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT
AMOUNTS, WITH MUCH LOWER TOTALS IN THAT AREA. CURRENTLY, THE DRY
SLOT LOOKS TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCE SCENARIOS THAT BRING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, THUS COMPACTION OF THE SNOW PACK
COULD MEAN THAT THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS COULD BE A BIT
LOWER THAN WHAT FALLS INITIALLY.
3) ADDITIONALLY, SNOW REMOVAL COULD PROVE MORE CHALLENGING THAN
USUAL DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT AND GENERALLY LOW SNOW/WATER
RATIOS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN, WITH INCREASING WINDS FROM THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE FROM THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND VISIBILITY WILL VARY WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGER WAVE
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
(PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ016-024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-029-030-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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