409
FXUS63 KFGF 011548
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1048 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST- CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
- WARNING IMPACTS LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION TODAY
WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE SNOW IN
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SNOW IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE
BASIN THIS MORNING. OBSERVED ROAD TEMPERATURES VIA RWIS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, HOWEVER ARE NEAR
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. OVERALL EXPECTATION
IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON (OUTSIDE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES).
THIS IS ALLOWING SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ONTO ROADWAYS IN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER EXPECTATION FOR WARMING GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING SNOW RATES HERE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE OPTED TO MESSAGE TRAVEL IMPACTS HERE THROUGH THE MORNING
VIA SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST- CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SEEING WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS TODAY THROUGH
QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND SUDDEN, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO TRANSITION SNOW TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW.
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTATION IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
MIRROR AIR TEMPERATURES, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER FOR SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MANY
LOCATIONS THAT SEE WET ROADS GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
HEAVY SNOW MAY SEE A LAYER OF ICE FORM UNDER SNOWFALL,
EXACERBATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED
INCREASE IN WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS AFTER SUNSET TODAY WITHIN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ARE MANIFESTING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF GROUND TRUTH. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT ARE COMING UP AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE COLUMN SATURATES. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
IS FALLING IN RUGBY, HARVEY, JAMESTOWN, AND OAKES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO AMOUNTS OR TIMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..WINTER STORM SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY ONSHORE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE OBS ARE GENERALLY IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL CONDITIONS ON MOST MODELS NOW, ALBEIT WITH A
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE BIAS IN ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THEN TREK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS SHOWING OCCLUSION POTENTIAL AND
SUBSEQUENT BRIEF INFLECTION TO THE NORTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS, WITH HRRR AND WRF3 ARW
FAVORING THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND
THE NAMNEST, NAM12, AND RDPS FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AREAS
WITHIN THIS BAND ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY
SNOW, WITH RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER HOUR. TIMING IS
CRUCIAL AS WELL, WITH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY
INITIALLY INHIBITING ACCUMULATION. THE AREA OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
AND THE DRY SLOT BEGINS TO FILL WITH PRECIPITATION AS OCCLUSION
TAKES PLACE. IN EITHER CASE, LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE
HIGHEST.
..WARNING IMPACTS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
TIMING: MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE TODAY FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THEN
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS: LOOKING AT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, 25TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS (75
PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED THIS AMOUNT) RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES,
WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE (25 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THIS
AMOUNT) RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER GIVEN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE STRONGER BANDS FORM, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, WE CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES (25TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, AMOUNTS
COULD BE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR TWO IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES NEAR ROSEAU.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:
1) THE LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT
AMOUNTS, WITH MUCH LOWER TOTALS IN THAT AREA. CURRENTLY, THE DRY
SLOT LOOKS TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCE SCENARIOS THAT BRING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, THUS COMPACTION OF THE SNOW PACK
COULD MEAN THAT THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS COULD BE A BIT
LOWER THAN WHAT FALLS INITIALLY.
3) ADDITIONALLY, SNOW REMOVAL COULD PROVE MORE CHALLENGING THAN
USUAL DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT AND GENERALLY LOW SNOW/WATER
RATIOS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS CEILINGS FALL INTO MVFR
TERRITORY LATER THIS MORNING, THEN IFR HEADING INTO MIDDAY AND
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE,
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 16Z AT KFAR. CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LOW CEILINGS LIKELY AT
ALL TAF SITES. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ016-024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-029-
030-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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