037
FXUS63 KFGF 011821
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES AND HEAVY
SNOW RATES WILL LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO COMPACTION AND
MELTING, LIMITING GROUND ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF
HEAVY SNOW RATES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUE TO WARM FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING ROADS WET AND MITIGATING TRAVEL IMPACTS
OUTSIDE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES.
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEEING
WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS TODAY THROUGH QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AND SUDDEN, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE NOW FOCUSED IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HEAVY SNOW RATES LOOKS IMMINENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS ORGANIZING IN
SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE IT MAKES ITS JAUNT NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO TRANSITION SNOW TO AND/OR MIX
WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW NEAR
OR JUST AFTER SUNSET
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEEING
WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS TODAY THROUGH QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AND SUDDEN, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY..
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTATION IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
MIRROR AIR TEMPERATURES, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER FOR SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MANY
LOCATIONS THAT SEE WET ROADS GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
HEAVY SNOW MAY SEE A LAYER OF ICE FORM UNDER SNOWFALL,
EXACERBATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED
INCREASE IN WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS AFTER SUNSET TODAY WITHIN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SNOW IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE
BASIN THIS MORNING. OBSERVED ROAD TEMPERATURES VIA RWIS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, HOWEVER ARE NEAR
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. OVERALL EXPECTATION
IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON (OUTSIDE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES).
THIS IS ALLOWING SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ONTO ROADWAYS IN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER EXPECTATION FOR WARMING GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING SNOW RATES HERE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE OPTED TO MESSAGE TRAVEL IMPACTS HERE THROUGH THE MORNING
VIA SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST- CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SEEING WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS TODAY THROUGH
QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND SUDDEN, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO TRANSITION SNOW TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW.
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTATION IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
MIRROR AIR TEMPERATURES, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER FOR SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MANY
LOCATIONS THAT SEE WET ROADS GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
HEAVY SNOW MAY SEE A LAYER OF ICE FORM UNDER SNOWFALL,
EXACERBATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED
INCREASE IN WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS AFTER SUNSET TODAY WITHIN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ARE MANIFESTING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF GROUND TRUTH. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT ARE COMING UP AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE COLUMN SATURATES. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
IS FALLING IN RUGBY, HARVEY, JAMESTOWN, AND OAKES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO AMOUNTS OR TIMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..WINTER STORM SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY ONSHORE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE OBS ARE GENERALLY IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL CONDITIONS ON MOST MODELS NOW, ALBEIT WITH A
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE BIAS IN ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THEN TREK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS SHOWING OCCLUSION POTENTIAL AND
SUBSEQUENT BRIEF INFLECTION TO THE NORTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS, WITH HRRR AND WRF3 ARW
FAVORING THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND
THE NAMNEST, NAM12, AND RDPS FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AREAS
WITHIN THIS BAND ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY
SNOW, WITH RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER HOUR. TIMING IS
CRUCIAL AS WELL, WITH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY
INITIALLY INHIBITING ACCUMULATION. THE AREA OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
AND THE DRY SLOT BEGINS TO FILL WITH PRECIPITATION AS OCCLUSION
TAKES PLACE. IN EITHER CASE, LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE
HIGHEST.
..WARNING IMPACTS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
TIMING: MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE TODAY FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THEN
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS: LOOKING AT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, 25TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS (75
PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED THIS AMOUNT) RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES,
WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE (25 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THIS
AMOUNT) RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER GIVEN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE STRONGER BANDS FORM, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, WE CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES (25TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, AMOUNTS
COULD BE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR TWO IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES NEAR ROSEAU.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:
1) THE LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT
AMOUNTS, WITH MUCH LOWER TOTALS IN THAT AREA. CURRENTLY, THE DRY
SLOT LOOKS TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCE SCENARIOS THAT BRING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, THUS COMPACTION OF THE SNOW PACK
COULD MEAN THAT THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS COULD BE A BIT
LOWER THAN WHAT FALLS INITIALLY.
3) ADDITIONALLY, SNOW REMOVAL COULD PROVE MORE CHALLENGING THAN
USUAL DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT AND GENERALLY LOW SNOW/WATER
RATIOS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT AVIATION THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY FROM LOWERED CIGS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW.
MOST TAF SITES ARE ALREADY IN MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR CIGS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO KBJI WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THESE CATEGORIES
BY 00Z. THESE LOWERED CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
SNOW IS REDUCING VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
INTERVALS OF HEAVY SNOW RATES REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/2 SM.
CHANCE FOR HEAVIEST SNOW RATES COMES BETWEEN 09Z - 18Z WEDNESDAY
WITHIN SOUTHEAST ND INTO MN, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THIS HIGH IMPACT HAZARD MAY IMPACT TAF
SITES LIKE KFAR AND KBJI.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST 10-20 KT, GUSTING TO 30KT WITHIN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06Z, GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHEAST
AROUND 12Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ016-024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-029-
030-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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