308
FXUS63 KFGF 012319
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
619 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES AND HIGH
SNOW RATES WILL LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO COMPACTION AND
MELTING, LIMITING GROUND ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF
HEAVY SNOW RATES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THERE REMAINS SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OUT THE DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS DISCUSSED BELOW.
OVERALL MIGHT BE WISE TO ASSUME THE FIRST 1-2 INCHES OF ANYTHING
FALLING WILL MELT PRIOR TO THINGS ACCUMULATING AND THAT GOES
FOR PAVED AND NON PAVED SURFACES ALIKE AS GROUND TEMPS REMAIN
WARM. BEST CHANCE FOR TRAVEL TO BE HEAVILY IMPACTED REMAINS 4AM
TO 10AM AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ICY TRAVEL AND THEN
SNOW QUICKLY FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IS
OBSERVED VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN
THE FLOW, WITH TWO OR MORE IN THE DAKOTAS, AND A MORE NOTEWORTHY
WAVE/PV ANOMALY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE
GREAT BASIN. THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP DRIVE INTERVALS
OF HEAVY SNOW RATES WITHIN ND INTO MN, PARTICULARLY THE
NOTEWORTHY WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE GREAT BASIN AS IT EJECTS AND
DEEPENS WITHIN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER WAVE WILL NOT ONLY AID RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR REGION, BUT ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HELPING INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION RATES. IT IS THIS PERIOD WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR, PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HOLDING 80% CHANCE OR GREATER OF SEEING
WARNING IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH SNOW RATES. WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A QUICK MOVING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN TIER OF SK/MB AND ND. THIS
BRINGS A 40% CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN, ALTHOUGH
WINTER IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LOW, RANGING FROM ADVISORY TO SUB-ADVISORY WITHIN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
..WINTER STORM IMPACTS
IMPACTS WILL MAINLY STEM FROM HEAVY SNOW RATES OWING TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. WHILE WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING, WEDNESDAY MORNING HOLDS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE GREATEST WINTER IMPACTS FOR THE EVENT DUE TO
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, AND IMPACT THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
NORTH-CENTRAL MN LIKE BEMIDJI TO BAUDETTE WILL SEE THEIR
RELATIVELY WORST IMPACTS/HIGHEST SNOW RATES, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THEIR AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW RATES AND
SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY
WHERE THIS OCCURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE VERY LARGE
VARIANCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SMALL DISTANCES, NOT ONLY FROM
VERY FOCUSED FORCING/GREATEST SNOW RATES, BUT ALSO ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY (OR LACK THEREOF) FROM RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MORE ON THIS ASPECT FOUND BELOW.
THERE IS STILL A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES FROM
WET HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES COMBINED WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR THIS
IMPACT IS LOW PROBABILITY, AROUND 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
..INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
AS OF 3PM, ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO WARM
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY KEEPING
ROADS WET AND MITIGATING TRAVEL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AND
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES.
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTATION IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO MIRROR
AIR TEMPERATURES, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER FOR SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MANY
LOCATIONS THAT SEE WET ROADS GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
HEAVY SNOW MAY SEE A LAYER OF ICE FORM UNDER SNOWFALL,
EXACERBATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED
INCREASE IN WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS AFTER SUNSET TODAY WITHIN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
GETTING INTO WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INSTANCE OF
WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME, ESPECIALLY LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AGAIN EFFECTIVELY
LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
WHILE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING SNOW RATES AND
DECREASING VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS LIKE FAR AND BJI AFTER 12Z
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW AND GENERALLY MVFR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SLOWLY TURNING SE TO NE/N BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW BY NO LATER THAN 08Z. IFR
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AFTER 12Z BUT COULD CREEP INTO
SOUTH/EASTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS 06Z IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ016-
024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-
002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-029-
030-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-
016-017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT
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