543  
FXUS63 KFGF 020441  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES AND HIGH  
SNOW RATES WILL LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH  
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  
 
- RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO COMPACTION AND  
MELTING, LIMITING GROUND ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF  
HEAVY SNOW RATES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING AND  
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
 
SNOW REMAINS VERY CELLULAR IN NATURE AT THE TIME OF WRITING WITH  
PATCHES OF HEAVY SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1 MILE.  
ROADS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACCUMULATION ON WEBCAMS WITH THIS  
EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS WERE ALLOWED TO  
DRY OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DURING A LULL IN SNOWFALL  
DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FREEZES AS TEMPS DROP  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
AS FAR AS WHAT TO EXPECT GOING FORWARD, MODERATE WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ON AGAIN OF AGAIN HEAVY SNOW THROUGH 12Z  
WITH WAVES OF PVA (ONE CAN BE NOTED IN MPX'S AREA OVER THE TWIN  
CITIES) LEADING TO BANDED SNOWFALL AND LONGER LASTING HIGH  
IMPACT SNOW. FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE SNOW BANDS FORCED BY THIS  
STRONGER PVA EXPECT 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WITH MELTING  
LIKELY NOT KEEPING UP ALLOWING THINGS TO QUICKLY PILE UP  
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND NATURAL SURFACES. AS FAR AS OVERALL  
TOTALS STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 4-9 INCHES ACROSS THE  
WARNING AREA AND 3-5 IN THE ADVISORY BARRING SIGNIFICANT MELTING  
OF THE SNOW AS IT FALLS.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
 
THERE REMAINS SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL  
ACCUMULATE OUT THE DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS DISCUSSED BELOW.  
OVERALL MIGHT BE WISE TO ASSUME THE FIRST 1-2 INCHES OF ANYTHING  
FALLING WILL MELT PRIOR TO THINGS ACCUMULATING AND THAT GOES  
FOR PAVED AND NON PAVED SURFACES ALIKE AS GROUND TEMPS REMAIN  
WARM. BEST CHANCE FOR TRAVEL TO BE HEAVILY IMPACTED REMAINS 4AM  
TO 10AM AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ICY TRAVEL AND THEN  
SNOW QUICKLY FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IS  
OBSERVED VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  
SATELLITE ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN  
THE FLOW, WITH TWO OR MORE IN THE DAKOTAS, AND A MORE NOTEWORTHY  
WAVE/PV ANOMALY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE  
GREAT BASIN. THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP DRIVE INTERVALS  
OF HEAVY SNOW RATES WITHIN ND INTO MN, PARTICULARLY THE  
NOTEWORTHY WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE GREAT BASIN AS IT EJECTS AND  
DEEPENS WITHIN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.  
 
THIS LATTER WAVE WILL NOT ONLY AID RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO  
OUR REGION, BUT ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL  
CIRCULATIONS HELPING INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND  
PRECIPITATION RATES. IT IS THIS PERIOD WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL  
RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR, PARTICULARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD  
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF  
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HOLDING 80% CHANCE OR GREATER OF SEEING  
WARNING IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH SNOW RATES. WILL CONTINUE THE  
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A QUICK MOVING, CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM  
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN TIER OF SK/MB AND ND. THIS  
BRINGS A 40% CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN, ALTHOUGH  
WINTER IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE  
RATHER LOW, RANGING FROM ADVISORY TO SUB-ADVISORY WITHIN  
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.  
   
..WINTER STORM IMPACTS
 
 
IMPACTS WILL MAINLY STEM FROM HEAVY SNOW RATES OWING TO  
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING  
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. WHILE WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS CAN  
BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING, WEDNESDAY MORNING HOLDS THE  
POTENTIAL TO SEE GREATEST WINTER IMPACTS FOR THE EVENT DUE TO  
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, AND IMPACT THE  
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE  
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOCATIONS CLOSER TO  
NORTH-CENTRAL MN LIKE BEMIDJI TO BAUDETTE WILL SEE THEIR  
RELATIVELY WORST IMPACTS/HIGHEST SNOW RATES, POTENTIALLY  
IMPACTING THEIR AFTERNOON COMMUTE.  
 
WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW RATES AND  
SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES WITHIN THE WINTER STORM  
WARNING AREA, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY  
WHERE THIS OCCURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE VERY LARGE  
VARIANCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SMALL DISTANCES, NOT ONLY FROM  
VERY FOCUSED FORCING/GREATEST SNOW RATES, BUT ALSO ACCUMULATION  
EFFICIENCY (OR LACK THEREOF) FROM RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.  
MORE ON THIS ASPECT FOUND BELOW.  
 
THERE IS STILL A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES FROM  
WET HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES COMBINED WITH WINDS  
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR THIS  
IMPACT IS LOW PROBABILITY, AROUND 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING.  
   
..INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
 
 
AS OF 3PM, ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO WARM  
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY KEEPING  
ROADS WET AND MITIGATING TRAVEL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AND  
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES.  
 
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTATION IS FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO MIRROR  
AIR TEMPERATURES, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER FOR SNOWFALL TO  
ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MANY  
LOCATIONS THAT SEE WET ROADS GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY  
HEAVY SNOW MAY SEE A LAYER OF ICE FORM UNDER SNOWFALL,  
EXACERBATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED  
INCREASE IN WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS AFTER SUNSET TODAY WITHIN THE  
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.  
 
GETTING INTO WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INSTANCE OF  
WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME, ESPECIALLY LATE  
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AGAIN EFFECTIVELY  
LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
 
WHILE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY  
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING SNOW  
RATES AND DECREASING VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS LIKE FAR AND BJI  
AFTER 12Z LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR  
WILL BE WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TRACK WITH BANDING (SOUTHEAST  
ND TO WEST CENTRAL MN). WINDS SLOWLY TURN FROM E-SE TO NE-N BY  
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THE EVENING (WEST TO EAST), HOWEVER IFR CEILINGS ARE  
LIKELY TO PERSIST.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ016-  
024-026>030-054.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-  
049-052-053.  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-  
002-005-007-008-013>015.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-006-  
009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...TT/DJR  
 
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