877
FXUS63 KFGF 020853
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW FORECAST TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MID
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO BRING WINTRY IMPACTS.
- TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATES VERY CRITICAL IN TERMS OF
IMPACTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT
AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS NO UPPER WAVES IN THE AREA TO GIVE FORCING
FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SO IT LOOKS ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE 500 MB AND 700 MB LOW TRACK INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 15Z. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DRIFT MORE NORTH INTO
COOPERSTOWN, GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU REGION IS DIMINISHING. WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY, BUT IF TEMPS TODAY DO RISE BACK AND HOLD
33/34 DEGREES THEN UNLESS IT SNOWS HARD ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LOWER.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM....THERE IS A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
SUCH LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND AS PASSING THRU DURING THE
DAY NO IMPACTS ANTICPATED. WARM UP SLOWLY GETS GOING NEXT WEEK.
..WINTER STORM IMPACTS
FROM 15Z-21Z THE TRACK OF 500/700 MB LOWS WILL TAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL MN NEAR ST CLOUD/BRAINERD. SHORT TERMM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP
15/16Z PERIOD IN FAR SE ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITHIN THE ZONE
FROM SISSESTON/WAHPETON TO BRAINERD REGION. THIS SNOW BAND LOOKS
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PIVOT FOR A TIME OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN
THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS-PARK RAPIDS ZONE TODAY AND THIS IS
WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SURFACE
TEMPS DROP TO 31/32. ROAD TEMPS NORMALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY, SO THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN TERMS OF ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WOULD EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS BASED
ON TYPE OF ROAD, SNOWFALL RATES, ETC. BOTTOM LINE MID MORNING
THRU MID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINTRY IMPACTS. IN THIS
BAND 3-7 OR 4-8 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE FOR SNOWFALL. SO WARNING
WILL REMAIN AS IS. NOW IF THINGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE THEN CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED. TOOK OUT BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS TODAY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE DUE TO
FALLING SNOW.
FARTHER NORTH/WEST FROM COOPERSTOWN THRU GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU
THE CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW REACHING HERE TODAY IS A LOT LOWER.
MESSAGING 1-4 INCHES TODAY IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH DEVILS
LAKE-HALLOCK UNDER AN INCH.
THE SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER AND SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE EVENING AND MAY NOT FULLY END TIL LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT ENDING TIMES AS IS OF 7 PM / 00Z THU BUT IN SOME
AREAS IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
WHILE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING SNOW
RATES AND DECREASING VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS LIKE FAR AND BJI
AFTER 12Z LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
WILL BE WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TRACK WITH BANDING (SOUTHEAST
ND TO WEST CENTRAL MN). WINDS SLOWLY TURN FROM E-SE TO NE-N BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (WEST TO EAST), HOWEVER IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ016-
024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-
039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-
006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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