155
FXUS63 KFGF 021746
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW FORECAST TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MID
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO BRING WINTRY IMPACTS.
- TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATES VERY CRITICAL IN TERMS OF
IMPACTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WEBCAM AND ASOS/AWOS
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, SO IT IS LIKELY THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
OCCURRING, IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF HOW WIDESPREAD THESE RATES
ARE. REGARDLESS, EXPECT AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TODAY, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE WARNED AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND IS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW HEAVY THE RATE IS, BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO 1/4-1/2SM AT TIMES. SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT OF IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS
THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SPIN IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. 10Z HRRR SHOWS A 500 MB LOW IN
THAT AREA BUT WITH 700 MB LOW STILL QUITE WEAK. 10Z HRRR SHOWS
BOTH 500/700 MB SYSTEMS STRENGTHEN A BIT DURING THE DAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO SEE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE
NORTHWES OF THIS LOW FOR ANY SUSTAINED HEAVIER SNOW BAND TO SET
UP. THERE IS HEAVIER SNOW IN BANDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA REDFIELD TO
ABERDEEN AREA AND WEST. SO FOR THE TIME BEING NOT A LOT OF SNOW
TO ROTATE INTO THE RRV AND WILL NOT UNTIL THE LOWS ARE A BIT
MORE EAST. 10Z HRRR IS LESS INTENSE WITH SNOW BAND IN TERMS OF
HOURLY SNOW RATES WITH ANY 1 INCH/HR RATES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT
AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS NO UPPER WAVES IN THE AREA TO GIVE FORCING
FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SO IT LOOKS ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE 500 MB AND 700 MB LOW TRACK INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 15Z. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DRIFT MORE NORTH INTO
COOPERSTOWN, GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU REGION IS DIMINISHING. WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY, BUT IF TEMPS TODAY DO RISE BACK AND HOLD
33/34 DEGREES THEN UNLESS IT SNOWS HARD ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LOWER.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM....THERE IS A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
SUCH LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND AS PASSING THRU DURING THE
DAY NO IMPACTS ANTICPATED. WARM UP SLOWLY GETS GOING NEXT WEEK.
..WINTER STORM IMPACTS
FROM 15Z-21Z THE TRACK OF 500/700 MB LOWS WILL TAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL MN NEAR ST CLOUD/BRAINERD. SHORT TERMM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP
15/16Z PERIOD IN FAR SE ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITHIN THE ZONE
FROM SISSESTON/WAHPETON TO BRAINERD REGION. THIS SNOW BAND LOOKS
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PIVOT FOR A TIME OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN
THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS-PARK RAPIDS ZONE TODAY AND THIS IS
WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SURFACE
TEMPS DROP TO 31/32. ROAD TEMPS NORMALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY, SO THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN TERMS OF ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WOULD EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS BASED
ON TYPE OF ROAD, SNOWFALL RATES, ETC. BOTTOM LINE MID MORNING
THRU MID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINTRY IMPACTS. IN THIS
BAND 3-7 OR 4-8 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE FOR SNOWFALL. SO WARNING
WILL REMAIN AS IS. NOW IF THINGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE THEN CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED. TOOK OUT BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS TODAY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE DUE TO
FALLING SNOW.
FARTHER NORTH/WEST FROM COOPERSTOWN THRU GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU
THE CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW REACHING HERE TODAY IS A LOT LOWER.
MESSAGING 1-4 INCHES TODAY IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH DEVILS
LAKE-HALLOCK UNDER AN INCH.
THE SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER AND SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE EVENING AND MAY NOT FULLY END TIL LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT ENDING TIMES AS IS OF 7 PM / 00Z THU BUT IN SOME
AREAS IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LIFR AND VLIFR AT TIMES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NORTH DAKOTA TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 06Z BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. EVENTUALLY, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND THIS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 18Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING THIS OUT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ016-
024-026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-
039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
002-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-
006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...PERROUX/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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