094
FXUS63 KFGF 030316
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1016 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
TONIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES AND SLICK
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
THE MAIN 700 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW EAST OF OUR REGION,
HOWEVER LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT
(TO LOCALLY MODERATE) SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AND
LOCATIONS WHERE MELTING WAS OCCURRING PREVIOUSLY ARE
ACCUMULATING AND SLICK ROADS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF OUR AREA. LATEST CAMS (PARTICULARLY THE HRRR) ARE
DOING A BETTER JOB OF HANDLING THE SLOWER EXIT OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z (1
AM) IN ND AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST MN THROUGH
9-11Z. AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL (POCKETS OF 2" IN
MN) CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH THIS WON'T BE UNIFORM. CONSIDERING
THESE TRENDS I WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ND ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THROUGH 1 AM MATCHING THE EXPIRATION OF THE MN
COUNTIES.
SOME CONSIDERATION MAY EVENTUALLY BE GIVEN TO EXTENDING THE MN
COUNTIES, HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE DRIER/STABLE AIR EVENTUALLY
SPREADING IN AT THAT POINT AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE THAN FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT DUSTING MAY HAVE DECREASED. WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS AND
SEE IF THIS IS FINALLY BREAKING UP AT THAT TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH POCKETS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SLOWLY WEAKENING. WHILE GROUND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
EVENING IN ND, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR 1-3" IN NORTHWEST MN AS
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING (THORUGH
1AM) AS THE 700 MB LOW TRANSITIONS EAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
LATEST TRENDS IN CAMS AND THE DECISION WAS MADE TO EXERTED THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING IN ND THROUGH 03Z (10 PM) AND IN NORTHWEST
MN THROUGH 06Z (1 AM).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE VERY LARGE SCALE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN
AROUND IOWA. A BROAD SWATH ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BRING BOUTS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NOON TOMORROW AT THE
LATEST, BUT THE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.
AS WE PROGRESS LATER INTO THE WEEK, A BRIEF QUIET DAY ON
THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT FRONTOGENESIS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER IS STOUT. LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN
INHIBITS QPF TOTALS, BUT 2-4 INCHES ARE A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FOR WHAT ENDS UP ON THE GROUND.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, MODULATING
850MB TEMPERATURES AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP US FAIRLY QUIET
WITH SIGNALS FOR IMPACTS AT A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND, BUT THE QUESTION MAINLY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY AS SNOWPACK
MAY LINGER FOR A DAY OR SO AFTER ACCUMULATION.
..HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
A BROAD SWATH OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA WITH EMBEDDED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG ORGANIZED BANDING IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHERE 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES MAY BE
OCCURRING BUT HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED YET. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE
PUSHING 2+ INCHES, AND GIVEN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT WITH
INSTABILITY, THIS DOES APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST AT GIVEN POINTS. RIGHT NOW,
THE REASONABLE UPPER END FOR PROLONGED BANDING APPEARS TO BE AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES, BUT FOR THE MOST PART YOU SHOULD EXPECT
GENERALLY 1-2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL DIMINISH AND
DISORGANIZE ANY BANDING, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF WHEN AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES IN END TIME AND
DURATION OF BANDING, THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS THE
CURRENT BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
..ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY
A CLIPPER WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER IS VERY WEAK,
SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
LIKELY FROM THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL, AT LEAST
SOME ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, THIS ONE POSSESSES THE
GREATEST LIFT AND THUS PROVIDES FOR THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL. FORWARD PROPAGATION OF A LINE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE LONG AXIS. FOR THIS
REASON, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
ARISE. EVEN IF WE SEE THE REASONABLE WORST CASE, WHICH IS 4
INCHES OF SNOW, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT NOT ALL 4 INCHES WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN. AT LEAST EXPECT SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE VERY WEAK SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT
DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN DUE TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, AND A FEW LINGERING
POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS TRACKING.
GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AS SNOW
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ENDS WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. MVFR (AND A FEW POCKETS
OF IFR) CEILINGS LINGER AFTER THE SNOW ENDS AND VFR CHANCES DO
NOT RETURN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST ND AND
FAR NORTHWEST MN. NORTHERLY WINDS 12-16KT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN WEST- NORTHWEST AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, DECREASING
BELOW 12KT THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ016-
026>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ003-006-
009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...DJR
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