401
FXUS63 KFGF 181459
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACCOMPANYING THE CAA IS A NORTHERLY BREEZE, ALREADY STARTING TO
GUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AT KGFK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE SUN RISES AND WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE
MORNING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH RESIDES TO OUR WEST, WITH RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY, PROVIDING
LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, GENERALLY AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE A BRISK END TO THE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SATURDAY, INCREASING A BIT FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST DIGS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT POPS
ARE IN THE 50% TO 70% RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN A HURRY TO PASS
THROUGH, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN A BAND ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE SYSTEMS MOTION, REDUCING RESIDENCE TIME AT ANY
ONE SPOT. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO WORK TO LIMIT POTENTIAL
QPF TOTALS. FOR THESE REASONS, QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS THE FA. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER A QUARTER INCH IS
30% AREA WIDE, WITH A 50% CHANCE IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
BOTH DAYS, WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 1.5
KM. RH PERCENTAGE VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AS THE FA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MEANWHILE ON SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER, BUT RH DOES NOT REALLY FALL ANY FURTHER THEN
SATURDAY. OUT OF THE TWO DAYS, SUNDAY SEEMS TO HOLD A HIGHER CHANCE
OF APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS. THIS
IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF MIXING IS A LITTLE DEEPER, AS RH VALUES
WOULD BE ABLE TO FALL FURTHER, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KFAR THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AS SEEN ON SATELLITE.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF UP
TO 27 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DECREASING MARKEDLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. VFR WITH NO IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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