039
FXUS63 KFGF 190001
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS H5 TROUGHING MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
THIS WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A CUT OFF H5 LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN NORTH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, QPF POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LOW, WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.25" OF RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
RH VALUES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FOR SATURDAY, MOST OR THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED UNDER A
SURFACE RIDGE, KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WHEN
WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS PREVAIL, GENERALLY IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
BKN CEILING AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREAFTER, HIGH ALTITUDE
CIRRUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO 25KT THROUGH 02Z, LESSENING
THEREAFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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