235
FXUS63 KFGF 201711
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
RH IS NOW WIDELY BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT POSSIBLE BY 1PM. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH A PERIOD BETWEEN NOW
AND 3PM COULD NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ND AND
MN. OVERALL THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS REMAINS WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO FORGO ISSUING A
SHORT TERM RFW BUT STILL RECOMMEND CAUTION AS ANY FIRES THAT
START COULD QUICKLY GROW AND BECOME UNCONTAINED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS STARTING TO DROP FOR THE DAY WITH RH
NEARING 40 IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY ALREADY. FOR THE MOST
PART TRENDS ARE FOLLOWING THE EXPECTATION FOR THE DAY. WINDS
CURRENTLY S/SE IN THE MID TEENS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CURRENT OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON (2PM) BEFORE BEGINNING TO DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL NO REASON TO CHANGE FIRE WEATHER
MESSAGING AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW PASSING BY
TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF INTO MN/WI TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TIGHTENING THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ND, BUT THEN RELAXING AGAIN TONIGHT
AS THAT TROUGH WASHES OUT. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TOMORROW, THEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ONE TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO, BRINGING
SOME PRECIPITATION. IMPACTS LOOK LOW WITH NOTHING STANDING OUT
FROM CLIMATOLOGY, AND PROBABILITIES FOR OVER HALF AN INCH OF QPF
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, THEN BRIEF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY BEFORE RIDGING
RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD MIXING
WILL BE COMPETING WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION, BRINGING
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND COULD GET INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ISSUE WILL BE THAT BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING AND LOWEST RHS HIT
LATE AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO SLACK OFF A BIT AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS A JOINT PROBABILITY OF 50
PERCENT FOR RH VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT AND WINDS OVER 20 MPH
IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, NEED 25 MPH IN THAT
AREA FOR RED FLAG. THE HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WHERE
THERE IS THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. WITH
THAT, WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL MESSAGING GOING, WITH AN SPS
FOR THE MN COUNTIES AND MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE ND SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL POSE A HAZARD.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH GUSTING INTO THE MID 30S WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 22Z WITH GUSTS WIDELY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN GENERAL WITH VARIABLE/LIGHT
WINDS BY 06-09Z AT ALL SITES. MUCH MORE QUIET CONDITIONS
TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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