565
FXUS63 KFGF 202325
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH A
PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY
THE END OF THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AS EVIDENCED IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A POTENT NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
INTO IOWA BY THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES AS THE DIFFLUENT JET
STREAK TRANSLATES NE PROVIDING ABUNDANT LIFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARDS. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND
OURSELVES IN THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT REGION OF THE SYSTEM WITH NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD SHORT TERM RIDGING BUILDS FOR TOMORROW WITH
DRY BUT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO MINIMIZED FIRE CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW THEN BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
TIER STATES WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS ON TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW THEN BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN THURSDAY (MAINLY WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA) AND YET AGAIN LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS (20-25%) AND REACHES ITS DAILY MINIMUM
WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING IT WILL BRIEFLY OVERLAP WITH STRONG WINDS
(20MPH GUSTING 30-35MPH) THIS AFTERNOON. RH ALREADY AT AT 25-30%
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15-20MPH (ISOLATED UP TO 25) AND GUSTS OF 25-
30MPH (ISOLATED UP OVER 35MPH) ARE COMBINING TO RESULT IN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH BURN BANS ACROSS SCATTERED
COUNTIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER,
FIRES COULD QUICKLY GROW OUT OF CONTROL, THOUGH MEETING SPATIALLY
EXTENSIVE OR TEMPORALLY LONG DURATIONS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS UNLIKELY AS THE WORST OF CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
SHORTLY OVERLAP. WINDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 4PM WITH RH
IMPROVING BY 8PM AS THE DIURNAL CURVE BEGINS TO TILT IN FAVOR OF
LOWERED CONCERN FOR THE HIGH DANGER. VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. LOW RH AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS VALUES DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 20S BUT LIGHTER WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED FIRE THREAT.
- RAIN CHANCES
NOT TO GET HOPES UP BUT THE NEXT WEEK IS UNLIKELY TO BE A DROUGHT
BUSTER FOR ANYONE. THAT SAID SOME MUCH NEEDED AND BENEFICIAL RAIN IS
ON THE WAY WITH THE FIRST ROUND COMING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY A 50% (OR GREATER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT)
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR OVER A QUARTER INCH WITH THIS EARLY
WEEK WAVE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER COMPONENT WOULD
BE EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.
THINGS DRY OUT FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPLIT FLOW BRINGS A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY WITH TRACK DIFFERENCES
STILL PROVIDING A RANGE OF RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. PER CLUSTERS A 60%
CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH ACROSS SE ND/WC MN WITH THE WAVE SHOULD IT
TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, THOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LEADING TO ONLY A 20% CHANCE FOR 0.25"
OR MORE.
FINALLY TO ROUND OUT THE RAIN CHANCES, BUILDING RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND DIGGING TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO SW
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTH PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF
ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM OUR AREA WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN THE FAVORED
REGION TO RECEIVE THE BENEFITS OF ANYTHING EJECTING OUT OF SAID
WESTERN TROUGHING. ALL THAT SAID ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERAL 40-60%
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING UPWARDS OF 0.25" IN THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. IN THE END MOST AREAS COULD BE LOOKING
AT A HEALTHY 0.50-0.75" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR SO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE STILL
REACHING UPWARDS OF 27 KNOTS AT KGFK, WITH LOWER VALUES
ELSEWHERE. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR KGFK AND
KDVL WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED. LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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