555
FXUS63 KFGF 210826
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST
CENTRAL MN BY END OF THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH THRU WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EARLY
MORNING WITH SFC FEATURES STALLED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
IT DOES. LIGHT WINDS EASTERN FCST AREA WITH NORTH WIND EASTERN
MN AND A SOUTH WIND IN E ND. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL ND AND THIS LIKELY TO HANG IN THAT AREA AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY, UNTIL THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MOVES AWAY. NET RESULT WILL
BE A PERSISTENT BAND OF CLOUDS WESTERN FCST AREA CANDO-DEVILS
LAKE SOUTH TO EAST OF BISMARCK. PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE RRV AND FAR
NW MN. MEANWHILE WEST EDGE OF MID CLOUDS FROM EASTERN SYSTEM TO
BE OVER AREAS FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS THRU MID MORNING.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE RRV AND NW/WC MN
MIDDAY AND AFTN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WESTERN FCST AREA.
FOR TODAY....LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS, UNDER 10 KTS. RH VALUES
DO DROP INTO THE 25-30 PCT RANGE IN MANY AREAS BUT LACK OF WIND
PREVENTING I THINK RH VALUES FROM MIXING IN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND SENDING RH VALUES CRASHING. THUS NO MENTION OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AS OF NOW FOR ND OR MN.
..RAIN CHANCES
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO S ALBERTA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE IN FAR SW MANITOBA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OF A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE 500 MB WAVE....AND THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST INTO W ND LATE TONIGHT/EVENING AND MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE IN THE
0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THURSDAY WITH NORTHERN EDGE SKIRTING SE ND AND WC MN WITH RAINFALL
IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE.
A THIRD 500 MB WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH THRU
ALL OF THE AREA FROM NEBRASKA TO MANITOBA SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
THIS ONE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
DUE TO UPPER RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME RISK OF THUNDER AS WELL SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE WITH THIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH KFAR,
KGFK, AND KDVL STILL ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. LOOK FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AT ALL SITES. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY WEAKENS. VFR
CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...LYNCH
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