250
FXUS63 KFGF 211748
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST
CENTRAL MN BY END OF THE MONTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE EXPANSIVE CLEARING IN
OUR EAST AND LINGERING MID LEVEL CU IN THE WEST, BUT TRENDS ARE
MATCHING UP IN GENERAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE INTERSECTING LINGERING PVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL LOW (TO THE EAST). THIS SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG TODAY
AS THIS TRANSITIONS EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR
REGION. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION (WEAK FORCING/VERY DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5KFT AGL).
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD (18Z).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
500 MB LOW IS IN NW WISCONSIN AT 11Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED IN WHAT WAS THE CLEAR SKY AREA WITHIN THE RRV AND FAR NW
MN. SO UPDATED SKY COVER FOR THIS TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THRU
THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH THRU WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EARLY
MORNING WITH SFC FEATURES STALLED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
IT DOES. LIGHT WINDS EASTERN FCST AREA WITH NORTH WIND EASTERN
MN AND A SOUTH WIND IN E ND. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL ND AND THIS LIKELY TO HANG IN THAT AREA AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY, UNTIL THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MOVES AWAY. NET RESULT WILL
BE A PERSISTENT BAND OF CLOUDS WESTERN FCST AREA CANDO-DEVILS
LAKE SOUTH TO EAST OF BISMARCK. PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE RRV AND FAR
NW MN. MEANWHILE WEST EDGE OF MID CLOUDS FROM EASTERN SYSTEM TO
BE OVER AREAS FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS THRU MID MORNING.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE RRV AND NW/WC MN
MIDDAY AND AFTN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WESTERN FCST AREA.
FOR TODAY....LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS, UNDER 10 KTS. RH VALUES
DO DROP INTO THE 25-30 PCT RANGE IN MANY AREAS BUT LACK OF WIND
PREVENTING I THINK RH VALUES FROM MIXING IN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND SENDING RH VALUES CRASHING. THUS NO MENTION OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AS OF NOW FOR ND OR MN.
..RAIN CHANCES
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO S ALBERTA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE IN FAR SW MANITOBA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OF A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE 500 MB WAVE....AND THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST INTO W ND LATE TONIGHT/EVENING AND MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE IN THE
0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THURSDAY WITH NORTHERN EDGE SKIRTING SE ND AND WC MN WITH RAINFALL
IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE.
A THIRD 500 MB WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH THRU
ALL OF THE AREA FROM NEBRASKA TO MANITOBA SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
THIS ONE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
DUE TO UPPER RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME RISK OF THUNDER AS WELL SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE WITH THIS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-11KT CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND MVFR CEILINGS EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD
OUR TAF SITES. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AFTER
18Z TUESDAY AT TAF SITES (SOUTH TO NORTH). WINDS EVENTUALLY
INCREASE ABOVE 12KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/DJR
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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